Forward Guidance

In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy!

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At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:06) Key Market Narratives

(04:03) Trump's Economic Vision

(13:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(14:39) Trump's Economic Vision (Con't)

(16:02) Technical vs. Actual Recession

(20:02) Credit Cycle and Market Positioning

(25:13) Market Pricing for Recession

(30:15) Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts

(32:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(33:54) Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE

(37:26) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing

(43:50) Portfolio Construction and Risk Management

(47:34) KISS Portfolio System

(52:29) Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, what markets we’re eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience, and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Forward Guidance x Macro Dirt

(01:32) Unpacking Trump’s Tariffs & Market Reaction

(09:56) Commodity Markets

(15:04) Federal Reserve and Economic Data

(24:27) Market Volatility and Bear Market Rallies

(25:57) Risk Management Strategies for Traders

(30:00) Gold Miners and Commodity Markets

(33:25) Tax Cuts and Tariff Implications

(37:43) Bitcoin's Resilience

(42:53) Bond Price Action

(44:53) Weekend Plans

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves

(03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump

(09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing

(16:05) Ledger Ad

(16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio

(20:19) Post-GFC Financial System

(23:46) Repo Market Tensions

(35:01) Ledger Ad

(35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing

(39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates

(44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite

(50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy

(01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity

(01:07:59) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, James Seyffart, Jeff Park, Robert Leshner, Ambre Soubrian, and John Mullin sit down at DAS to discuss tokenizing real world assets, how tokenization brings liquidity to assets similar to ETFs, and the opportunities around tokenized private credit, data, and more. We also delve into the next wave of institutional adoption, competing with the TradFi behemoths, and more. Enjoy!

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

02:33 Tokenizing Real World Assets

07:45 ETFs and Tokenization

 14:16 Biggest Tokenization Opportunities

17:11 Tokenizing Data

20:55 Bringing the World On-Chain

24:35 Regulatory Expectations

26:47 The Next Wave of Institutional Adoption

31:59 European Market

33:16 Competing with TradFi

36:20 Institutional Adoption and Future Outlook

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Le Shrub joins the show to discuss the end of American exceptionalism, overexposure to Mag7 and the US dollar, and European allocators moving away from the United States. We also delve into the era of geographic diversification, the detox period in the US to lower the 10-year and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:02) The End of American Exceptionalism

(03:28) Trump Policies and European Response

(08:45) China's DeepSeek Moment

(13:00) Ledger Ad

(13:45) US vs. Europe

(22:52) The Role of Hedge Funds and Pension Funds

(32:53) Ledger Ad

(33:37) The Role of Hedge Funds and Pension Funds (Con't)

(35:51) US Market Flexibility vs. European Rigidity

(37:07) Risks and Opportunities in Europe

(44:51) Trading the US Detox Period

(50:26) Bond Market vs Fiscal Policies

(58:09) Final Thoughts & Main Takeaways

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang and Austin Campbell join the show to discuss their overview of macro after the latest FOMC meeting, the EM-ification of the United States, and how stablecoins play into the continuation of US dollar hegemony. We also delve into support for stablecoin legislation, the case against the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & US sovereign wealth fund, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:11) Macro & Crypto Colliding

(01:09) Overview of Macro and FOMC Meeting

(04:25) US EM-ification

(09:39) Ledger Ad

(10:23) What is Good Fiscal & Monetary Policy?

(13:55) Stablecoins and US Treasury Demand

(19:01) Stablecoin Legislation

(23:44) Reinventing Money Market Funds

(24:29) Ledger Ad

(32:58) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & Sovereign Wealth Fund

(36:54) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi from 1000x join the show to discuss Bitcoin vs altcoin inflows, the Trump impact on markets, and the bull case for Bitcoin. We also delve into global liquidity, how to position for 2025, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv  

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:30 BTC vs Alt Inflows

08:46 The Trump Impact On Markets

16:14 Why Have Markets Sold Off?

20:14 The Bull Case For Bitcoin

23:09 Global Liquidity

26:13 How To Position In 2025?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss takeaways from the FOMC meeting and SEP, the balance of Treasury and fiscal policy, and how a strategic Bitcoin reserve and stablecoins play into the United States’ goals. We also delve into the US sovereign wealth fund, our highest conviction trades, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:08) FOMC Meeting Insights

(05:46) Treasury and Fiscal Policy

(10:26) Global Economic Dynamics

(20:06) Digital Assets and Crypto Market

(24:48) US Sovereign Wealth Fund

(30:20) Digital Asset Big Picture

(34:01) Highest Conviction Trades

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:10) Expectations for the Fed

(02:47) Inflation Expectations

(09:38) Ledger Ad

(10:25) Tariffs & Growth

(13:20) Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Policies

(22:31) Stablecoins and Digital Assets

(25:12) Ledger Ad

(28:31) Bitcoin as a Neutral Reserve Asset

(33:00) Europe's Sputnik Moment

(37:39) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss his bullish 2025 outlook for Bitcoin, why the US government needs stablecoins, and what’s next for the broader crypto industry. We also delve into how bullish institutions are compared to retail, Bitcoin's correlation to gold, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:50) Macro & Crypto

(04:38) Global Fiscal Impulse

(06:18) The US Needs Stablecoins

(09:30) US Embrace of Bitcoin

(12:54) What’s Next for the Industry

(15:17) Institutions are Bullish!

(16:40) Fragmentation of ETF vs On-chain Assets

(20:28) Bitcoin’s Correlation to Gold

(21:38) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy!

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit

(02:16) CPI Takeaways

(05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism

(08:45) Ledger Ad

(09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare

(14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game

(20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade

(24:36) Ledger Ad

(25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't)

(31:11) It's a Bear Market

(32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis

(34:26) Bond Market & Yields

(39:11) 60/40 Portfolio

(42:34) Hedging Strategies

(45:08) Crypto Market Prospects

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump’s tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin’s Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments

(05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown

(07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy

(17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal

(19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal

(23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

(25:36) DAS Promo

(26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity

(33:23) Target Date Funds

(36:17) Trump Administration Goals

(51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields

(59:22) Market Predictions

(01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market

(07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives

(14:14) Ledger Ad

(14:59) European Market Outlook

(18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip

(27:32) Ledger Ad

(28:18) Bond Market and NFP

(32:28) Oil Market Outlook

(37:51) Equity Subsectors

(40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment

(43:52) Crypto Market Advice

(48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher

(51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading

(54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss the February jobs report, tariffs & imports front-running, and the inflation outlook, including the growing risk of stagflation. We also delve into the outlook for Europe, Japan, and China, Bitcoin and digital assets, and more. Enjoy!

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG200 FOR $200 OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:27) Job Report & Labor Market

(05:45) US Growth & Stagflation Risk

(09:41) Tariffs & Imports

(11:19) Inflation Outlook & Oil

(15:48) Fiscal Outlook

(19:32) DAS Promo

(20:14) Fed & Number of Cuts in 2025

(22:57) Goods, Services, & Shelter Inflation

(25:51) Europe, Japan, & China

(32:14) Bitcoin & Digital Assets

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!

__

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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:09) Market Cycle Clock Explained

(06:09) Deciphering the Market Regime

(10:13) Sector Performance and Predictions

(11:01) Ledger Ad

(11:46) Sector Performance and Predictions (Con't)

(19:04) Outlook for European and Chinese Markets

(24:30) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook

(32:48) Ledger Ad

(33:33) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (Con't)

(34:35) Credit Spreads and Market Sentiment

(37:08) Gold and Bitcoin

(41:27) Highest Conviction Bet for 2025

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump’s political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy!

—

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

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—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro Overview

(05:21) Recession Predictions

(07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction

(10:42) Skale Ad

(11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't)

(14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook

(24:35) Historical Comparisons

(31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations

(33:32) Skale Ad

(34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con’t)

(39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility

(46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies

(49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights

(54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy!

—

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—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0

(10:01) Skale Ad

(10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio

(17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies

(25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics

(34:51) Skale Ad

(35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't)

(38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries

(44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates

(52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts

(01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment

(01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade?

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy!

—

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes

(06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases

(16:20) Skale Ad

(16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't)

(20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective

(22:41) Skale Ad

(23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT

(27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth

(29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies

(32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx

(33:43) Yen & DAX

(38:09) Crypto Market Update

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Benn Eifert joins the show to discuss derivative & volatility strategies, the biggest derivatives misconceptions, and flaws with Stephen Miran’s tariff arguments. We also delve into volatility risk under the Trump administration, how to think about VIX percentage moves, and much more. Enjoy!

__

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—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:32) Understanding Volatility-Focused Hedge Funds

(04:12) Tools and Strategies in Volatility Trading

(11:21) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs

(19:03) Skale Ad

(19:27) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (Con't)

(27:15) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading

(32:06) Skale Ad

(32:36) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (Con’t)

(37:09) Options Trading

(41:07) Implied Probabilities and Market Misconceptions

(44:17) The Reality of Options Pricing Models

(47:06) Impact of Derivatives on the Market

(57:47) Navigating Volatility in the Trump Era

(01:01:01) Debating the Merits of Tariffs

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest CPI data, how the Trump administration will balance economic vs market success, and the constant economic headfakes. We also delve into how the government kicks the can without QE, MicroStrategy holding up Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!

—

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJjbC4s7DKMR3nU0_6C242oEhrfYH67O/view?usp=drive_link

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:03) Analyzing the Latest CPI Data

(10:56) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes

(16:53) Skale Ad

(17:15) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (Con't)

(29:34) Skale Ad

(30:04) Roundup Continues

(32:51) Liquidity Concerns

(34:49) The SLR Exemption Debate

(42:59) Crypto, Bitcoin Strength, & Michael Saylor's Influence

(48:57) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andreas Steno Larsen joins the show to discuss the outlook for liquidity, the uptick in the manufacturing and credit cycle, and expectations around inflation. We also delve into Powell’s QE comments, idiosyncratic drivers of gold, and much more. Enjoy!

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—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Current Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment

(01:48) Liquidity Backdrop and Federal Reserve Policies

(04:33) Private Sector Liquidity and Credit Creation

(10:21) Treasury General Account and Debt Ceiling

(17:30) Skale Ad

(17:54) Future Liquidity Measures and Market Implications

(21:06) Private Credit and Economic Cycle

(26:55) Meta's Client Base and Market Power

(27:44) Russell Index and Wage Growth Insights

(29:42) Inflation and CPI Analysis

(33:17) Skale Ad

(33:46) Global Tariff Impacts and Dollar Outlook

(36:26) European Market Performance

(42:05) Gold Market Dynamics

(48:22) Bond Yields and Truflation Measure

(51:19) Learn More About Andreas and his Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the possibility of the market discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE success, the market implications of the Treasury QRA, and whether the manufacturing uptick is tariff front-running or the beginning of a new boom. We also delve into the state of the crypto market, MicroStrategy’s earnings, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hLvwH8eVffhQ5-C97EM1pNqfxXRwYWz/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:02) Upcoming DAS 2025

(03:05) Tariff Delays

(04:41) Bitcoin and Crypto

(10:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(12:01) Liquidity Outlook and Dollar Strength

(17:02) Market Discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE

(20:32) Treasury Issuance and Policy Changes

(28:06) Growth & Liquidity

(29:02) Bond Yields and Growth Expectations

(30:51) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(32:06) Construction and Manufacturing

(33:57) Government vs. Private Sector

(36:14) Stock Market and Investment Sentiment

(40:44) MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Investments

(43:49) Evaluating Government's Role in Investments

(47:54) Upcoming Jobs Report

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth joins the show to discuss recent tariff headlines, the state of the US labor market, and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on inflation. We also delve into the complexities of implementing tariffs and the economic policies of the Trump administration, the influence of government stimulus on job creation, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:59) Impact of Tariffs on the Economy

(07:21) US Labor Market Concerns

(09:23) Gig Economy and Unemployment

(12:59) State and Federal Job Market Dynamics

(16:23) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(17:07) Interview Continues

(22:45) Inflation and the Fed's Mandate

(27:50) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(29:04) Interview Continues

(32:23) Manufacturing Sector and Economic Outlook

(35:28) Business Investment and Recession Indicators

(39:40) Federal Reserve's Internal Fragmentation

(48:33) Learn More About Danielle's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss crypto's liquidation event over the weekend and how to trade the upcoming week. We deep dive into the weak performance of altcoins, Bitcoin's role in a multipolar world, shorting in this market environment & more. Enjoy!

--

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Kraken OTC unlocks premium, personalized services for high-net worth individuals and institutional clients to execute large orders. Trade over chat or access our self-service automated trading feature to receive executable quotes in seconds. Get 24/7 access to private and secure trading services and deep liquidity for competitive execution. Get in touch today: kraken.com/blockworks

Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding WA, NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc.

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Empire podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world’s crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets.

For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today.

Buy now at Ledger.com

--

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:57) Carnage In Crypto

(04:21) Shorting This Market

(13:57) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger)

(15:00) When To Buy This Market?

(19:29) WIF

(23:48) Privacy Coins

(27:26) What's Next For Markets?

(39:05) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger)

(40:44) Bitcoin In A Multipolar World

(50:16) The AI Trade

--

Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed

This week we discuss the Fed meeting, the impact of Trump's back & forth economic policies, and the outlook for bitcoin and alts. We also delve into the bull case for Lyft, what the totality of economic data says about the economy, and much more. Enjoy!—

Follow Andrew: https://x.com/_Andrew_Stein

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oVXtaPmwC592uvnClK9JA3I8uVSzf6BD/view?usp=drive_link—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:58) Lyft Investment Thesis

(03:12) Valuation Comparison and Market Dynamics

(04:20) Free Cash Flow and Buyback Potential

(05:17) Stock Dilution and Future Prospects

(07:18) Short Interest and Acquisition Rumors

(08:55) Short Interest and Market Sentiment

(12:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(13:16) Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions

(17:08) Macro Trends and Economic Outlook

(23:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(25:09) Roundup Continues

(26:09) Trump's Economic Policies and Market Impact

(30:10) Tariff Tensions: US-Canada Trade War

(31:14) Canadian Political Shake-Up

(31:52) Market Movements and Sector Rotations

(32:35) AI's Impact on the Market

(34:23) Small Caps vs. NASDAQ: Investment Strategies

(36:18) Trump's Tariff Tactics

(36:46) Economic Growth and Treasury Policies

(46:06) Bitcoin and Crypto Market

(48:03) Looking Ahead: Market Predictions

(54:10) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the market implications of the latest DeepSeek innovation, the evolving AI geopolitical game theory, and the winners and losers of the AI race. We also delve into the tension between AI productivity and employment, a framework for viewing the different AI models, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:25) DeepSeek's Revolutionary AI Model

(04:43) Implications for GPU Demand and Training Costs

(07:48) Geopolitical Tensions and AI Development

(16:04) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(17:10) Future of AI and Technological Adoption

(26:56) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(28:11) Winners and Losers in the AI Market

(29:18) Energy Consumption and AI

(31:27) The Future of AI Models

(33:15) AI's Impact on Employment and Economy

(36:14) The Reality of AI Advancements

(43:46) Economic Models and AI

(49:46) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of Trump and his executive orders, the outlook for inflation, and the yield curve steepening. We also delve into warning signals for equities, CEO mentions of economic slowdown, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EK4VxLf1UrpTCmKGgBVE0PeIxr3ek4f-/view?usp=sharing

—

Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) Introduction and Guest Introduction

(01:20) Market Overview and Trump's Influence

(02:16) Fed's Interest Rate Strategy

(04:38) Executive Orders and Market Reactions

(14:55) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(16:01) Roundup Continues

(18:53) Inflation and Economic Indicators

(24:09) Challenging Market Assumptions

(24:34) Trump's Influence on Market Sentiment

(25:13) Inflation and Energy Prices

(27:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(28:26) FOMC Voting Members Rotation

(29:18) Analyzing the Yield Curve

(33:04) Market Reactions and Predictions

(39:11) Economic Slowdown and Recession Risks

(48:04) Final Thoughts and Market Outlook

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Brent Donnelly: https://x.com/donnelly_brent

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:13) Make FX Great Again

(01:51) Tariff Expectations

(07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar

(13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(14:39) The Fed Reaction Function

(17:27) Equity Valuations

(19:23) FX Framework

(28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger)

(29:19) Carry Trades

(34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises

(42:17) Canada & CAD/USD

(47:21) China & Yuan

(53:40) Long-Term Dollar View

(56:55) Learn More About Brent’s Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss what the latest CPI data means for markets, whether we’re in the early stages of the credit cycle, and trading Inauguration day. We also delve into the crypto reserve debate, the potential BOJ rate hike, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UR_BWMbyzFgxqrCEZ6DjhGK36TDJQEjX/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(02:44) CPI & Inflation

(09:03) Yields, Positioning, & Market Whipsaw

(12:27) Growth Debate

(22:01) Ads

(23:16) Equity Contra-Indicators

(27:54) Inauguration Day: Buy Or Sell The News?

(31:14) Crypto Reserve Debate

(35:11) Bonds Recycling Into Other Assets

(37:05) Fiat Debasement & Trump

(39:23) Japan & BOJ Rate Hike

(45:20) Nasdaq Vs Small Caps

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:20) 2025 Outlook

(05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market

(11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness

(16:29) Housing Market & Employment

(23:43) Impact Of LA Fires

(26:48) Ads

(28:45) December SEP

(32:25) Rate Cut Expectations

(34:56) Inflation Overview

(39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation

(43:12) Equity Valuations

(50:19) Growth Vs Value

(52:59) Long Bond Trade

(56:23) Commodities Outlook

(57:41) Learn More About Warren’s Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:55) December Jobs Report

(06:16) Other Labor Market Data

(07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over?

(11:24) DAS 2025

(14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025?

(20:57) Global Margin Call

(27:10) Dollar Dilemma

(29:58) Global Bond Yields

(33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics

(35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening

(37:25) Crypto Politics

(39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold

(40:05) Ads

(42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't)

(45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria

(49:12) NFP Prediction

(49:52) TLT & Positioning

(52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis

(57:05) Yield Solutions

(59:59) 2-Year Trade

(01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration

(01:04:22) Public Spending Problem

(01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything

(01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he’s tactically bearish, the US dollar’s implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:54 Macro & Crypto Overview

10:01 Implications Of Hawkish Fed

13:37 Inauguration & The US Dollar

18:43 Ads

20:41 Crypto Market Outlook

24:39 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

27:36 Crypto Shopping List

33:02 Bottom Signals

36:53 2025 Outlook

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonny Matthews joins the show to discuss Fed policy and its impact on yields, US productivity, and resilience in the labor market. We also delve into the Trump Administration's potential impact on markets, the outlook for US equities, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Jonny Matthews: https://x.com/super_macro

Super Macro: https://super-macro.com/

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) No Recession Call

(04:04) Fed Meeting

(06:43) Fed Policy & Era Of Higher Rates

(10:27) US Vs Global Productivity

(14:27) Global Growth Outlook

(17:12) Inflation Overview

(22:35) Income & Consumption Disparities

(25:36) Impact Of Fed Policy

(29:20) Ads

(30:33) Labor Market Overview

(35:42) Trump’s Potential Immigration Policy

(38:12) Fading DOGE, Deregulation, & Tariffs

(40:25) SOFR, Term Premium, & Central Bank Policy

(47:42) Risk Assets & US Equities

(50:52) Fed Gilt Crisis Moment?

(52:33) Alternative Assets

(55:05) Euro & US Dollar

(57:10) Learn More About Jonny’s Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, David Cervantes and DCP join the show to discuss the FOMC post-mortem, the similarities to the 90s business cycle, and managing emotions in markets. We also reflect on the COVID crash, dig into expectations for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow David Cervantes: https://x.com/EconstratPB

David’s Substack: https://substack.com/@pinebrookcap

Follow DCP: https://x.com/Dcpcooks

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:12) Donnie’s Background

(08:00) David’s Trading Framework

(09:08) FOMC Post-Mortem

(19:19) Fed Guidance & Market Surprises

(21:49) DCP’s Edge

(23:55) New Government Regime

(24:49) Reflecting On Trades

(26:28) Similarities To The 90s

(30:45) Ads

(31:58) Interview Continues

(33:11) So You Want To Be A Trader?

(35:05) We’re Mid-Cycle, Not Late-Cycle

(37:05) Managing Emotions

(40:43) Trading Wisdom

(44:52) Reflecting On The COVID Crash

(51:55) Trading Insights

(53:53) Trading Bonds Vs ES

(59:16) 2025 Expectations

(01:05:15) Trump & The Deficit

(01:07:08) Closing

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with On the Margin, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:20) Macro Outlook

(07:14) Philosophical Vibe Shift

(12:39) Financial Nihilism

(16:40) Unpacking The Next Administration

(20:11) Misaligned Incentives

(23:23) Ads

(25:24) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

(38:15) BSR & The US Dollar

(47:06) Crypto Market Outlook

(50:04) Crypto Product Market Fit

(55:18) Fundamentals Bearish?

(57:07) Learn More About Travis’ Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing

(06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over?

(12:01) Trump Policy Impact

(14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike

(20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

(22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation

(27:43) VIX & Market Positioning

(31:46) China Risk

(33:42) Ads

(35:36) Systematic Volatility

(37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus

(39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities

(43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path

(46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks

(51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending

(52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook

(54:58) Bessent Economic Plan

(57:15) 1998 Framework

(59:55) Productive Capacity Boom

(01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference

(06:21) Immigration Impact

(09:50) 2025 Surprises

(12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking?

(20:25) Peak Hawkishness

(21:59) Long-Term Rates

(23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool

(25:34) Ads

(27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics

(29:15) The Neutral Rate

(31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness

(32:57) Reverse Repo

(38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance

(40:25) Equities & The Dollar

(44:01) Gold & Crypto

(45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation

(50:28) Main Takeaways

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China’s balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades

(07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top?

(09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor

(11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession

(13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar

(15:30) Dovish Fed

(16:51) Labor Market & Claims

(21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing

(26:00) Rate Steepening

(27:13) Ads

(29:15) Trump Peace Dividend

(32:51) Inflation & CPI

(36:22) Continuing Goldilocks

(39:52) Bitcoin

(43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing

(50:53) Vol Controllers

(53:48) Geopolitics

(55:23) Cash Bubble

(57:07) New Credit Cycle

(59:17) Housing Affordability

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview

(06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate

(14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation

(21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation

(22:54) Ads

(25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative

(27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing

(28:27) Taxes & Government Spending

(31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms

(34:29) The K-Shaped Economy

(37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles

(39:05) Politics & The Oil Market

(41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff

(56:38) Does The Deficit Matter?

(58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration

(01:01:14) The Bid For Duration

(01:04:57) Warren’s Trading

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the November jobs report, the Fed’s cutting path, and the goldilocks scenario for 2025. We also delve into the different R* models, MicroStrategy, the Milken moment for crypto, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TxUrZZsIWtXdqbDS-DDJL7EduaP_pdpE/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up

(03:33) November Non-Farm Payrolls

(08:31) Economic Slowdown or Stability?

(10:20) Debating The Fed’s Cutting Path

(16:51) Hot Economy Vs Growth Scare

(24:24) Macro Analysis & Shorting Oil

(30:35) Ads

(32:38) We Are In Goldilocks

(36:29) Stocks Vs Commodities

(38:12) Inflation Turning Point

(39:40) Different R* Models

(46:07) History Of Junk Bonds

(48:11) Milken Moment For Crypto

(52:11) Monetizing Volatility

(53:26) Bitcoin & Evolving Options Market

(56:40) MicroStrategy Risks

(01:03:23) Enhancing Yield With Volatility

(01:06:13) Debating Bitcoin’s Future

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Dan Tapiero joins the show to discuss why he’s unbelievably bullish on the macro, his introduction to Bitcoin & blockchain, and the US dollar. We also delve into the regulatory changes he’s most excited for, the generational shift upon us, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Dan Tapiero: https://x.com/DTAPCAP

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you’re an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:22) Dan's Background

(08:10) Introduction To Bitcoin & Crypto

(16:48) Bitcoin, Sovereigns, & Regulation

(20:42) Most Exciting Regulatory Changes

(23:19) MicroStrategy's Bold Play

(25:14) Ads

(26:58) Macro Overview

(33:01) Unbelievably Bullish

(38:17) Generational Shift

(41:07) Keep A Long-Term View

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Michael Kao: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake

(10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps

(14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence

(17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull

(26:24) Ads

(28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out?

(34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball

(44:29) December Fed Decision

(47:14) The Oil Market

(52:01) Peace Dividend

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze

(06:26) Risk Management Strategies

(17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced?

(25:48) Ads

(27:32) Volatility Seasonality

(30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation

(40:35) Shift In Global Collateral

(52:21) Volatility Is Vitality

(56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy

(03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech

(09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields

(13:38) Government Spending & DOGE

(19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar

(22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps

(24:56) Ads

(26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria

(33:24) Bullish Market Signals

(37:41) Stifling Volatility

(40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin

(43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook

(48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession

(53:34) Differentiating Assets

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran

Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:27) Stephen's Background

(02:34) Context Behind The Paper

(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade

(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency

(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining

(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs

(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs

(25:37) Currency Offsetting

(32:25) Ads

(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies

(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs

(49:18) Dollar Devaluation

(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury

(01:01:46) The Big Picture

(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets

(01:06:43) Closing Remarks

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist

(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift

(14:14) Forward Guidance

(15:54) Summarizing George's Position

(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds

(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy

(33:28) Ads

(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)

(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?

(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed

(49:51) What Stage Are We In?

(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate

(01:01:23) Economic Outlook

(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:27 Election Outcome

04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling

09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing?

15:53 Market Impact Of Election

23:04 Ads

24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued)

25:35 Offsides Hedging

30:40 Powell & The Fed

36:37 December FOMC Meeting

40:47 2025 Themes To Watch

44:39 Short Gold?

46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs

52:19 New Market Regime

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) FOMC Takeaways

(02:48) Is Policy Restrictive?

(07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced?

(09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What

(12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy

(15:40) Quantitative Tightening

(18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do

(22:20) Ledger Ad

(23:05) The Labor Market

(26:33) Election Impact On The Fed

(31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation?

(35:22) Fiscal Deficits

(42:51) Asset Allocation

(44:42) Credit Spreads

(46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy

(49:58) F*ck Valuations

(52:11) Follow Bob's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations

(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election

(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact

(27:52) Ledger Ad

(28:37) How Will The Fed React?

(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar

(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure

(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect

(52:06) Market Outlook

(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy!

—

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--

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:47) NFP Report Takeaways

(14:50) Quant Corner

(24:31) Ledger Ad

(25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding?

(37:31) QRA

(48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy!

__

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__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market?

(04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique?

(07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates

(09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity

(12:39) Election Impact on Markets

(15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields

(22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets

(26:39) Earnings vs Valuation

(34:52) Ledger Ad

(35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing?

(37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk

(42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges

(45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates

(49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter?

(56:42) Learn More About Jurrien

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:33) Path of Interest Rates

(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?

(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves

(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility

(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging

(20:29) Election Probability Distribution

(27:17) Ledger Ad

(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates

(31:10) Inflation Resurgence

(33:18) Global Coordination

(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade

(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency

(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market

(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!

__

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle

(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?

(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles

(18:20) The Cyclical Economy

(21:52) The Housing Sector

(26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing

(30:44) Measuring the Labor Market

(34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims

(39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims

(42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions

(47:12) The Unemployment Rate

(50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve

(57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?

(01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:42) Economy is Doing Well

(05:09) Earnings vs Economic Data

(08:29) Actionable Market Ideas

(11:38) Election & Trump Trades

(18:46) Small Caps & Gold

(21:34) Bitcoin & Microstrategy

(24:45) Contrarian Gold Take

(27:52) Trump Trade Hedges

(29:19) Fed Rate Cutting Path

(33:07) Economic Growth Under Trump

(38:12) Volatility & Election Hedging

(41:50) Measuring Hard & Soft Landings

(45:52) Economy Under Biden/Harris

(49:45) AI & The Future Economy

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy!

__

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities

(06:38) Win-Win for Equities

(09:59) Election & Trump Trades

(13:48) A Trader's Market

(17:07) Fed & Macro

(20:09) Bond Yields & Volatility

(22:56) Market Sentiment Push & Pull

(25:09) Oil & Geopolitics

(30:31) Gold Market

(35:29) Precious & Base Metals

(37:57) FX Market

(39:04) Bitcoin & Crypto

(41:28) What Would Make Tony Bearish?

(43:03) Tony's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we sat down at Permissionless to discuss the latest CPI and labor market data, the likely noise in the upcoming labor data, and the impact of coordinated central banking. We also delve into the election, its potential impact on crypto, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:26) Inflation & Labor Market Data

(06:03) Inflation Mechanics

(10:13) Labor Market Noise

(14:13) Coordinated Central Banking

(19:26) Bifurcated Economy

(23:45) Is Macro Bullish or Bearish?

(30:11) Crypto & the Election

(36:18) Bitcoin Outlook & Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto.

—

Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:20) Oil Market & Geopolitics

(05:39) Macro's Role In Crypto Markets

(08:41) Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto

(14:00) Bitcoin & Interest Rates

(21:18) The Forward Guidance Regime

(25:00) Economic Growth vs Stimulus

(27:57) Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto

(30:49) Economic Uncertainty

(33:57) Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity

(36:37) The Fed's Credibility

(40:19) Economic Bifurcation

(45:10) History of Asset Bubbles

(46:48) Generational Wealth

(51:02) Price Predictions

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest bullish jobs report, the impact of globally-coordinated easing, and the Middle East's impact on markets. We also delve into the recent SOFR explosion, election pricing in markets, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S24tXpteiZg1jilfU8aXk0L_NtXFLXVg/view?usp=drive_link

—

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:34) Non-Farm Payrolls

(10:59) Fixed Income & High Yield

(12:43) Global Coordinated Easing Cycle

(16:20) US Dollar & US Exceptionalism

(18:52) Global Easing Driving Growth & Liquidity

(22:08) The Big Picture

(26:32) Permissionless Ad

(27:11) Oil, Gold, & the Middle East

(31:37) Global Collateral Shift

(33:19) Middle East Tail Risk

(36:23) SOFR Explosion & QT

(42:09) Simplifying Macro Trading

(45:25) Economic Politics

(48:28) Crypto Markets

(50:31) Election Pricing in Markets

(55:56) Permissionless Next Week

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!

__

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Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com

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__

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:54 Implied Forward Rates

03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession

07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance

11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields

13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity

18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread

23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate

26:11 The Fed's Master Plan

29:43 Permissionless Ad

30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?

35:19 Labor Market & Immigration

38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?

40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt

42:03 Market Opportunities

44:33 Equities & Rates

47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link

—

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction  

(01:14) China & Economic Stimulus  

(08:11) The World is Changing  

(12:26) Oil Market  

(15:45) Unpacking the Labor Market  

(23:27) Permissionless Ad  

(24:04) Interview Continues  

(25:15) Central Bank Politics  

(27:16) GDP & GDI  

(32:26) Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples  

(38:26) Things to be Worried About  

(45:40) Main Takeaways

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy!

__

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__

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework

(04:56) GDP & Economic Growth

(14:11) Interest & Payment Expense

(16:17) Exports

(17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together

(19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates

(23:31) Manufacturing Sector

(30:31) The Business Cycle

(35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators

(38:21) Inflation

(40:25) Liquidity Breakdown

(53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy

(56:42) Prometheus Research

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters

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—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link

—

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) FOMC Victory Lap

(03:38) Quinn's Framework

(06:11) Bullish Rate Cut?

(09:30) Summary of Economic Projections

(14:32) Bullish Market Signals

(18:05) The World Trade

(21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle

(24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk

(27:50) Private Credit

(29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt

(31:43) Permissionless Ad

(32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle

(34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI

(37:13) Economic Expectations

(39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls

(44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone

(50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity

(53:32) The Banana Zone

(58:58) Monetary Matters

(01:01:09) Balancing Market Views

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42

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__

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:41) Overview of the Economy

(02:42) Recession vs Normalization

(05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut

(10:17) Are We Price For Recession?

(12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts

(19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong

(25:49) The Fiscal Impulse

(28:55) Trend of US Growth

(31:02) Permissionless Ad

(31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials

(40:31) Chinese Economy

(44:32) Asset Allocation

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters

Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.

Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270

Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948

__

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?

(08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008

(15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession

(25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China

(33:26) Permissionless Ad

(34:25) China's Trade Surplus

(38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It

(45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo

(01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024.

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

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Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_inc

Jack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters

__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:59) Trust Preferred CDOs

(08:44) Starting Hildene Capital Management

(10:44) Buying Trust Preferred CDOs

(13:22) Deferred Payments

(20:13) Trust Preferreds Regulated Out

(23:15) Philadelphia Fed Paper

(27:38) Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets

(34:33) Private Credit

(37:55) Hildene's Market Niche

(44:11) The Structured Credit Market

(51:44) Structured Security Correlations

(55:20) Credit Market Risks

(01:00:00) The Realities Of Private Credit

(01:08:27) TruPS CDOs

(01:11:03) Private Credit CLO Market

(01:14:48) Risks & Rewards

(01:18:58) Collateralized Loan Market Performance

(01:25:28) Closing

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Laila Kollmorgen, Portfolio Manager, CLO Tranche for Pinebridge Investments, joins Jack for a Fireside Chat on Forward Guidance to discuss why collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have rallied so much over the past two years as most of the fixed-income world has suffered enormously. Laila explains why she likes the structure of CLOs and why she thinks there will be an opportunity to be selective going forward as credit fundamentals begin to soften and valuations have increased. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.

__

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us

Laila Kollmorgen’s articles on Pinebridge:

https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift

https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift

https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/leveraged-finance-asset-allocation-insights-issuer-selection-is-key-as-loans

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:15) What Is A Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)?

(05:37) CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) vs. CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations): How CLOs Fared Much Better Than CDOs During The Great Financial Crisis

(13:13) Market Value CDOs and CLO Reinvestment Periods

(19:45) Why CLOs Have Performed So Well

(24:54) If Silicon Valley Bank Had Invested In CLOs Instead of Long-Duration Paper (Agency MBS & Treasurys), Perhaps They Would Still Be Around!

(35:26) CLO Valuations And Laila's Base Case For CLOs As Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Is About To Begin

(41:21) Have Economic Fundamentals Begun To Soften?

(43:37) Refinancing Risk (i.e. if CLO Manager Pays Off Tranche Liabilities At Par To Refinance At Tighter Spread)

(46:32) Some CLO Investors Were Buying Callable Paper Above Part (>100)! (That's "Crazy" Says Kollmorgen)

(51:59) The Maturity Wall For High Yield and Corporate Credit Has Been Extended

(56:13) How Might Various Tranches Of CLO Asset Class Perform In A Recession?

(59:41) Risk of Default and Risk of Distressed Sales

(01:03:53) Views On Liquidity and Volatility

(01:09:04) Not A Huge Fan of Private Credit CLOs

(01:13:37) Thoughts on "Creditor on Creditor Violence"

(01:17:10) Red Flags to Avoid In CLO World

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor befor

This interview with Matthew Sigel explores the bull case for bitcoin, its future as a reserve asset, and the economics of bitcoin miners. We also discuss miners pivoting to data centers, stablecoins, crypto regulation and much more. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on September 4, 2024.

Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin Miners' AI Arbitrage Play to Boost Revenue": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-miners-ai-arbitrage-play-to-boost-revenue/

Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:53) How Matthew Got Into Crypto

(05:10) Fake & Bias News In Finance

(07:51) The Case For Bitcoin

(10:48) Bitcoin As A Reserve Asset

(18:33) Nation States Leveraging Bitcoin

(22:40) Profitability Of Bitcoin Mining

(24:22) Catalysts For Bitcoin Adoption

(26:52) Bitcoin As A Medium Of Exchange

(28:42) Bitcoin Risks

(33:34) Is The Bitcoin Supply Flexible?

(35:08) Bitcoin Miner Economics

(41:02) Bitcoin Miners Repurposing Their Energy

(46:31) Bitcoin Vs Altcoins

(53:53) Biggest Crypto Overweights & Underweights

(58:09) Stablecoins

(01:05:19) Crypto Politics & Regulation

(01:07:40) NFTs

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.

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Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/

Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold

(06:32) Investing In Gold Companies

(09:14) How To Value A Gold Company

(16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings?

(19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices

(22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks

(25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk

(36:54) Thinking About Depreciation

(40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies

(44:38) Gold Royalty Companies

(52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects

(58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession?

(03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption

(05:45) Household Savings

(07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate

(15:40) Credit Markets

(19:48) Permissionless Ad

(20:48) Job Market Revisions

(23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income

(27:32) Trading Interest Rates

(30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall?

(35:42) Labor Market Data

(39:31) Opportunities In The UK

(50:30) Home Run Trades

(52:55) The Gold Market

(55:33) China Outlook

(01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings

(01:05:29) AI & Productivity

(01:09:29) Super Macro Note

(01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience

(01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds

(01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more.

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Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith

About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok

Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View

(08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not

(17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency

(18:53) Permissionless Ad

(19:51) Interview Continues

(26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong

(37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself

(42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields?

(49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money?

(01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing

(01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance

(06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities

(10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market

(11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market

(18:28) How India's Market Improved

(22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves

(24:29) India's Favorable Demographics

(30:01) Best Performing Industries In India

(33:09) India Inflation

(35:31) India's Imports & Exports

(36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations

(45:58) Indian Investment Goals

(49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector

(53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market

(01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly

(01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy

(02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates

(03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule

(06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down?

(08:33) Real Interest Rates

(11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate?

(14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle

(18:41) Election Insights

(20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue

(23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:31) The Risks Of Financialization

(02:07) Financial Market Signals

(05:37) China & The Global Economy

(09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem

(15:15) US Economic Resilience

(21:07) How Good Is The US Economy?

(27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities

(30:28) Comparing Major Economies

(37:18) China's Economic Advantages

(40:44) Where China Spends Its Money

(49:44) China's Growing Influence

(53:01) The US Economy & Inflation

(01:10:31) European Economy

(01:11:58) Asian Economies

(01:14:48) Camp Kotok

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets

(03:38) Natalia's Introduction To Economics

(05:55) How Big Is The EM Bond Market?

(11:07) Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed

(14:40) Weakness From Developed Markets

(17:35) The Yen's Impact On EMs

(26:24) BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank

(29:16) Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy

(30:58) Benefits Of Floating Currencies

(34:32) Making Money In EM FX

(36:53) Signal For EMs To Cut Rates

(38:38) Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX

(41:25) Diversification In EMs

(46:24) Sub-Saharan Africa

(51:48) Importance Of India

(59:40) Investing In China

(01:04:49) China's Growth Model

(01:17:10) Emerging Market Reserves

(01:25:01) De-Dollarization

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant

(03:07) Quest Hedge Fund

(04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy

(11:50) Trend Following Examples

(16:47) Permissionless Ad

(17:44) Interview Continues

(19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded

(22:52) Statistical Arbitrage

(27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage

(32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds

(33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches

(39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies

(41:34) Private Market Investing

(48:29) Volatility Strategies

(54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook

(01:02:26) Risks To Quest

(01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:26 Why George Robertson Is Bullish

04:12 Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy?

05:43 Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market

09:33 Unemployment And The Labor Market

13:22 Government Spending And The Economy

20:16 GDP Is Booming

21:13 VanEck Ad

26:40 The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates

30:47 Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy?

35:46 Nominal GDP And Interest Rates

52:18 How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve

56:47 Rates Are Artificially Low

01:18:05 How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates

01:29:15 Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher

01:34:09 Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations

01:59:54 Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse

02:03:26 Reforming Entitlement Spending

02:08:36 The US Will Solve All Problems

02:15:34 The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt

02:24:07 How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy

02:30:26 Learn More About George And Mel's Work

02:32:15 Thoughts On Small Caps

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is).

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:34) Brent's Market Views

(06:56) Brent's Dollar View

(13:44) VanEck Ad

(14:26) Interview Continues

(17:57) Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop"

(19:41) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer

(20:20) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer

(26:07) Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way

(36:46) Permissionless Ad

(37:53) Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market

(43:19) Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze

(48:37) Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar

(01:02:00) Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?

(01:04:51) Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large

(01:13:03) Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?

(01:16:17) Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation.

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YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report

(05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now?

(06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher

(28:35) VanEck Ad

(29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces

(32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies?

(42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining?

(48:40) Permissionless Ad

(49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger

(53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More

(01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices

(01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup"

(01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos

Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos

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Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817

Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(12:35) VanEck Ad

(13:14) Interview Continues

(19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September?

(24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market?

(25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market

(31:41) The Housing Market

(36:41) Permissionless Ad

(37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign"

(47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates

(50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President?

(54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another

(57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed)

(01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market

(10:08) VanEck Ad

(10:48) Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically

(19:27) The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans)

(25:04) How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs?

(28:59) Permissionless Ad

(29:58) The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age?

(41:34) Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession?

(46:53) What Is The Private Credit Money Used For?

(52:57) Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform?

(58:51) Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace

(01:03:02) Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities)

(01:04:40) Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets

(01:07:02) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:52) Tech Stocks Are In A "Bubble," Argues Tommy

(15:29) Earnings Season So Far: Tesla and Google

(20:51) VanEck Ad

(21:32) Interview Continues

(25:33) Nvidia and Apple

(37:03) What Tom Is Short

(39:39) What Tom Is Long

(51:49) Permissionless Ad

(52:51) Interview Continues

(01:00:26) National Debt and Recession Odds

(01:03:48) What Would It Take For Tommy To Turn Bullish?

(01:14:28) Tom's Story About Charlie Munger

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”:

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf

Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944

Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)?

(08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance"

(20:52) VanEck Ad

(24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing")

(29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic

(33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns?

(45:43) Permissionless Ad

(46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment?

(59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration?

(01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets"

(01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too

(01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook

(04:59) Bank of America

(12:54) VanEck Ad

(15:39) Charles Schwab

(20:27) Credit Cards and Auto

(27:21) Permissionless Ad

(28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

(35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks

(40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up

(44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity

(47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers

(56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected

(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?

(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out

(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Recent writings by Michael Pettis:

“Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en

“Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/

“Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model

(09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard

(17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China

(20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s

(24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)

(28:06) VanEck Ad

(28:46) Interview Continues

(36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists

(49:58) Permissionless Ad

(50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"?

(57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"

(01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit

(01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances

(01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World

(01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)

(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?

(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out

(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession

(12:26) VanEck Ad

(13:06) Interview Continues

(21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real?

(48:07) Japan

(54:36) China

(01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

(01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/

Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:10) Railroads

(19:50) VanEck Ad

(20:30) Airlines

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far?

(05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg

(10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market

(15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way?

(19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation?

(21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods

(24:35) VanEck Ad

(25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs"

(26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package"

(28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg

(36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies

(41:01) The Chinese Labor Market

(43:09) Permissionless Ad

(44:15) The Chinese Stock Market

(49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles

(54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden

(01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending?

(01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged"

(01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China)

(01:14:11) Chinese Yuan

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years

(05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022

(19:36) VanEck Ad

(20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism?

(26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy?

(39:56) Permissionless III Ad

(40:54) AI And Labor Productivity

(54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats

(01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024?

(01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks

(01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions

(01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing?

(10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election

(21:54) VanEck Ad

(22:36) Odds Of A Recession

(29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is?

(48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks

(58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland

(04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight"

(06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher

(09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies

(22:01) VanEck Ad

(28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar?

(30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal?

(34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead

(45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins

(48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins

(50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher

(58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options

(01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates

(01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries

(01:13:34) Natural Gas

(01:20:25) Uranium and Gold

(01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

--

This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy!

--

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--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR

(16:05) VanEck Ad

(16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy

(22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading

(24:57) What Is tZERO?

(36:43) What Is A Security?

(38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity

(48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering

(56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Midas’ website: https://midas.app/

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Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro

(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000

(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021

(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)

(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?

(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical

(21:19) VanEck Ad

(21:59) Palantir and Anduril

(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.

(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022

(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)

(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto

(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain

(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis

(47:50) Tether and Circle

(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)

(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore

(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare

(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?

(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas

(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.

(01:04:27) FedNow

(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?

(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk

(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024

(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech

(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7

Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/

Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary

Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now

(07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?

(20:04) VanEck Ad

(20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations

(26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers

(28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks

(29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners

(33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump

(37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)

(40:13) China

(46:32) Trump on Crypto

(48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?

(54:12) Tarriff Basket

(56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)

(58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company

(01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English

(01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed

(01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished

(01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?

(01:19:03) China's AI Stocks

(01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now

(01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX

(01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu

Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update

Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:57) The U.S. Labor Market

(03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector)

(19:50) VanEck Ad

(23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs

(28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence

(45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail

(52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE

(01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI

(01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2%

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma

(09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve

(34:06) VanEck Ad

(34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market)

(38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy

(43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective

(48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products

(50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008

(01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

17:39 VanEck Ad

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english

William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation

William English’s co-authored Chapter on the Fed’s Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml

William English’s 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm

“Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were

(03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing?

(07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy

(09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021

(13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice

(18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

(23:41) VanEck Ad

(24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later

(29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size

(32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects?

(36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect

(44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020

(52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet

(57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019

(01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction?

(01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy?

(01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR)

(01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure

(05:20) "Froth" In Commodities

(11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S.

(19:41) VanEck Ad

(20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be?

(34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows

(41:21) War And Finance

(45:30) Bank of Japan

(54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades

(01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in!

- -

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

(00:00) Introduction

(03:24) Modular vs Integrated

(11:47) Who are Appchains for?

(28:58) Composability in Modular World

(36:15) Monad's Endgame

(39:47) Importance of Decentralization

(48:05) Building Web3 Community

--

Disclaimer:

Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation.

Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:53) Japan

(11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan

(16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan

(22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates?

(25:03) VanEck Ad

(26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go?

(33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen

(56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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--

This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy!

--

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks

(03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble

(06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet"

(13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner

(20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here"

(22:37) VanEck Ad

(23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take

(26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell

(27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One

(36:49) Bond Market Positioning

(41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit

(43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks

(44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500)

(51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth

(56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks"

(01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason

(01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change?

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan

(18:01) Is This Legal?

(23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs)

(28:32) Zillow’s Business Model

(35:24) VanEck Ad

(36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change

(39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down

(44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits?

(48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes

(54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia

(01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC

(01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:19) In This Economy?

(07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now

(11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis?

(14:21) VanEck Ad

(15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued)

(19:45) Declinism & Doomerism

(27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S.

(32:46) Political Polarization

(34:16) The Origin Of Money

(36:10) MMT & Debt

(40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

__

Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties.

Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024.

James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0

Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback:

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(06:08) Job Offer And Title

(12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro?

(20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest)

(23:48) Van Eck Ad

(24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing"

(31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro"

(50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie"

(56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial"

(58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023

(01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment"

(01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn

(01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem"

(01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative

(01:19:17) Higher For Longer

(01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election

(01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve)

(01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft

(01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency

(01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration)

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

__

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Mel Mattison’s book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) Mel’s Background

(04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)

(06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market

(11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook

(14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”

(17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)

(24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s

(27:56) VanEck Ad

(28:38) Why Now?

(37:01) Great Depression

(43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues

(48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?

(59:14) Timing: 2027

(01:04:52) Social Security Funding

(01:17:01) Gold and Inflation

(01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise

(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure

(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons

(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions

(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish

(26:13) VanEck Ad

(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?

(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia

(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?

(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)

(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market

(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks

(01:07:49) The Labor Market

(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

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__

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(01:07) An Overview Of Currencies

(09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge

(20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe

(25:41) Economic Outlook

(29:27) VanEck Ad

(30:28)

(34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies

(36:23) Emerging Market Currencies

(42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit

(45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007

(49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)

(01:00:27) View On Stock Market

(01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket

(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far

(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect

(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises

(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can

(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?

(21:43) VanEck ad

(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things

(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?

(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy

(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market

(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)

(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies

(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)

(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:16) The Script

(02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes

(04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession

(07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

(13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?

(17:13) VaEck Ad

(18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)

(22:35) Stock Bond Correlation

(30:17) May Fed Meeting

(31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)

(33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year

(34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy

(39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?

(41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise

(44:53) The Japanese Yen

(46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States

(47:37) Chinese Equity Market

(49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation?

(19:38) VanEck Ad

(20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle

(29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future

(34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation

(42:03) The Fed

(55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation

(01:04:20) The Japanese Yen

(01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward

Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription.

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__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) The QT Taper

(05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting?

(09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth

(22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth

(29:53) Consumer Spending

(33:11) Layoffs in 2024

(36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest

(38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit

(47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine

(51:24) Basel III Endgame

(56:33) Dissents

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This is a paid sponsorship on behalf of Van Eck Associates Corporation.

Today’s episode of Forward Guidance is a special fireside chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund. Kanade shares his philosophy for investing in crypto, and discusses his views on Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Kanade worked as a Credit Portfolio Manager at Millennium Management.

Pranav’s Substack: https://killerapps.substack.com/

__

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:31) Kanade's Journey Into Crypto

(10:43) Kanade's Investment Philosophy

(13:55) Is Crypto In A New Bull Market?

(35:32) Leverage And Funding Rates

(38:01) How Macro (And The Federal Reserve) Impacts Crypto

(48:45) Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN)

(52:42) Tesla

(54:54) Crypto Venture Capitalists (VCs)

(58:15) Eth vs. Sol

(01:01:12) At This Stage, Most AI Crypto Things Is "Nonsense"

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Harris Kupperman returns to the show for a discussion on how he is thinking about markets in 2024. Expecting bonds to continue selling off, will equity markets crumble or continue to melt up as fiscal dominance takes the reigns?

Harris then shares his thoughts on some of the best opportunities he is seeing in markets such as oil, gold miners, uranium & more. Enjoy!

--

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

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--

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Nobody's Ready For Higher Inflation

(02:59) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024?

(05:26) Gold

(09:25) Oil

(17:04) VanEck Ad

(18:07) The Uranium Trade

(30:37) Gaining Gold Exposure vs Owning The Miners

(37:06) The A.I Trade & Investing In Your Circle Of Competence

(39:59) Bitcoin

(42:58) The Bond Market Sell-Off Can Continue

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Ben Miller Fundrise Co-Founder and CEO joins the show. We begin by discussing the U.S public debt problem as debt to GDP remains elevated over 100%. For the second half of the conversation, we deep dive into the current state of the U.S real estate market focusing primarily on CRE. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

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VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

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--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:47) The U.S Debt Problem

(08:25) Private vs Public Debt

(15:02) VanEck Ad

(16:05) Can The U.S Handle Higher Interest Rates Past 2024?

(31:22) Commercial Real Estate & The Debt Duration Reset

(35:26) The Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb

(47:02) State Of The Housing Market

(49:24) Prices Are Not At Distressed Levels... Yet

(56:03) The Bull Case For CRE

(01:05:59) The Real Estate Sector Is Praying For A Recession

(01:07:28) Lending & Private Credit

(01:12:16) What Happens If Rates Stay Higher For Longer?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) Banking Net Interest Income Is "Flat To Down"

(04:26) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

(13:26) VanEck Ad

(14:26)