[Problem profile] “Problem Profile: Climate change” by Benjamin Hilton

Could climate change lead to the end of civilisation?

Across the world, over half of young people worry that, as a result of climate change, humanity is doomed.Hickman et al., 2021, Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey. Hickman et al. surveyed 10,000 children and young people (aged 16–25 years) in 10 countries (1,000 participants each in Australia, Brazil, Finland, France, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Portugal, the UK, and the USA) between May 18 and June 7, 2021. 55.7% of respondents agreed that “humanity is doomed.”

They feel angry, powerless, and — above all — afraid about what the future may hold.Hickman et al., 2021. Here, we’re citing the following results from the survey: 56.8% reported having felt angry, 56.0% reported having felt hopeless, 61.8% reported having felt afraid, and 75.5% agreed that “the future is frightening.”

Climate change matters so much, to so many, not just because of the suffering and injustice it’s already causing, but also because it’s one of the few issues that has obvious potential to affect our world over many future generations. We think safeguarding future generations is a key moral priority, and should be a crucial consideration in prioritising problems on which to work.

If climate change could lead to the end of civilisation, then that would mean future generations might never get to exist – or they could live in a permanently worse world. If so, then preventing it, and adapting to its effects, might be more important than working on almost any other issue.

So – what does the science say?

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Outline:

(02:39) Summary

(03:47) Our overall view

(06:06) Section 1: Could extreme climate change directly lead to the extinction of humanity?

(07:16) How hot could it get?

(11:13) Tipping point #1: The runaway greenhouse effect

(12:33) Tipping point #2: Cloud feedbacks

(13:21) Tipping point #3: Methane clathrates

(14:33) Tipping point #4: Melting permafrost

(15:40) Summing up: what is the range of possible temperature increases from climate change?

(16:35) Graph: possible temperature changes

(18:33) Could climate change simply make it too hot for humans to survive?

(21:02) Could the world sink under water?

(23:55) Could climate change destroy global agriculture?

(26:45) How would extreme climate change affect biodiversity?

(28:15) Summing up: why climate change almost definitely won’t directly cause human extinction

(31:56) Section 2: How climate change could cause extinction indirectly anyway

(32:27) Climate change will likely increase migration, which could lead to instability

(34:10) Will climate change increase global conflicts?

(35:30) Climate change could make society less stable in other ways

(36:51) Summing up: how climate change makes global catastrophic risks worse

(39:19) Section 3: What about global catastrophes that aren’t extinction?

(41:02) Section 4: How else could climate change affect the long-term future?

(42:57) Section 5: Should you work on climate change or another global issue?

(43:28) Reasons to work on climate change

(45:50) Reasons not to work on climate change

(49:32) Section 6: What are the best ways of working to solve climate change?

(51:53) Some considerations to help you figure out what to work on

(54:19) Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions — especially through green tech innovation

(57:38) Research into carbon removal technology (but not solar geoengineering)

(58:46) Research on extreme risks from climate change

(01:00:11) Want to work on reducing risks to humanity from climate change? We want to help.

(01:00:32) Section 7: Key questions we’re unsure about

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First published:
May 17th, 2022

Source:
https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/climate-change