Trump-Xi: Stability without resolution

The recent summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping brought greater stability to US-China relations, but little substantive resolution. Continued dialogue and an extension of the trade truce offer grounds for optimism, however major questions around trade, geopolitics and AI remain unresolved.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey is joined by Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy, Asia, to consider the implications for Asian markets.

They explore how strong AI-related demand continues to support technology exporters, particularly Korea and Taiwan, with related investment and activity providing support elsewhere in the region. Beyond the tech sector, moves in US rates have been a significant driver of recent pressure across Asian bond markets. Currency markets present a similarly differentiated picture, with policy tightening in Japan yet to provide sustained support for the yen.

Turning to energy markets, Kotecha points out that while India and the Philippines remain relatively vulnerable as major energy importers, the region has proved more resilient than expected to elevated oil prices.

For markets, the central message is that geopolitics is becoming increasingly difficult to separate from the economic story. From trade and technology to supply chains, rates and currencies, the interaction of these forces makes China and the broader Asian region increasingly important for investors to watch.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

• FX & EM Macro Strategy - FX Views for the Year Ahead
• FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook -The FX effect of global reflation
• China-US Watch More signalling, less substance
• Q4 2026 Global Outlook – Reluctantly Optimistic

Listeners can also explore the topic further:

• Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?
• Japan: Why the world is watching
• Opportunities in Asian Equities

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