271: Rising EA PGI prediction of educational attainment across 1946–1970 British birth cohorts and socioeconomic interaction

Morris TT et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2026.123:e2516460123 - EA and cognition polygenic indexes (PGIs) in three British birth cohorts show EA PGI associations with years of education increased from 1946–1970 and were strongest in advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. Key terms: educational attainment, polygenic index, gene-environment interaction, British birth cohorts, socioeconomic status.

Study Highlights:
Using three nationally representative British birth cohorts born 1946, 1958, and 1970, the authors analyzed polygenic indexes for educational attainment (EA) and cognition. They generated PGIs with clumping-and-thresholding (PRSice2) and LDpred2, used multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting, and estimated linear models including cohort-by-PGI interactions. EA PGI associations increased from approximately 0.44 to 0.67 years of education per 1-SD and incremental R2 rose from 3.5% to 5.1% across cohorts, while cognition PGI associations were broadly stable. There was strong evidence of gene–environment interaction: returns to EA genetic liability were disproportionately larger among those born into more advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds.

Conclusion:
Across three British birth cohorts born 1946–1970, genetic liability indexed by an EA PGI became more predictive of years of completed education while cognition PGI prediction remained stable, and EA PGI effects were amplified in advantaged socioeconomic contexts.

QC:
This episode was checked against the original article PDF and publication metadata for the episode release published on 2026-01-25.

QC Scope:
- article metadata and core scientific claims from the narration
- excludes analogies, intro/outro, and music
- transcript coverage: Audited the core scientific claims conveyed in the transcript: temporal increase of EA PGI associations, stability of cognition PGI, GxE interaction by SES, non-cognitive vs cognitive PGI interpretation, and study limitations.
- transcript topics: EA PGI prediction of education across cohorts; Cognition PGI stability across cohorts; Polygenic indices (EA PGI and cognition PGI) methods; Gene–environment interactions with socioeconomic background; Non-cognitive vs cognitive PGI interpretation; Limitations: ancestry and PGI portability

QC Summary:
- factual score: 10/10
- metadata score: 10/10
- supported core claims: 5
- claims flagged for review: 0
- metadata checks passed: 4
- metadata issues found: 0

Metadata Audited:
- article_doi
- article_title
- article_journal
- license

Factual Items Audited:
- EA PGI associations with years of completed education increased across cohorts (1946c 0.44, 1958c 0.49, 1970c 0.67).
- Cognition PGI associations with education remained broadly stable across cohorts (1946c 0.23, 1958c 0.27, 1970c 0.24).
- EA PGI explained incremental variance in education rising from 3.5% to 5.1% across cohorts.
- Gene–environment interaction: higher returns to EA PGI among advantaged backgrounds and near-null returns among the most disadvantaged.
- Non-cognitive PGI captures additional variance; cognition PGI did not show increasing predictive power.
- Limitations include ancestry limitation to white European participants and PGI portability concerns.

QC result: Pass.