Stock Bubble Warning, France Deficit Blowout Risk, Poland’s $1T Problem

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.

On today's podcast:

(1) The US equity market is in bubble territory, with metrics such as the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, the real equity risk premium, and the Buffett Indicator pointing to overvaluation.

(2) Anthropic expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter, in the latest sign of overwhelming demand from investors looking to profit from the artificial intelligence boom.

(3) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he’s prepared to expand efforts to buy back costlier debt and that the administration will be unveiling a new fiscal initiative to address the highest borrowing costs in year

(4) Oil headed for a substantial weekly gain, as a US push to isolate Iran’s economy raised the specter of further market disruption.

(5) France’s fiscal deficit would widen by at least 0.5% of economic output if political divisions prevent the adoption of a 2027 budget before presidential elections, the state’s finance auditing body cautioned.

(6) British consumers are more confident than at any point since Labour took power two years ago, further evidence that the national mood has improved since Andy Burnham took over as prime minister in July.

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