No One Alive Has Seen What's About to Happen to the Bond Market | Johnson & Dicker

Mentor Sessions EP 108: Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker on the Bond Market, the Dollar, Gold & the Next Money Rotation

The rest of the world owes an estimated $110 trillion in US-dollar debt they can't print, and a rising dollar is what could force the defaults. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital and Keith Dicker of IceCap Asset Management lay out why a strong dollar and higher Treasury yields can coexist, what actually causes de-dollarization, and how to position before the next liquidity shock.

In this conversation you'll learn why Johnson reads October's sharp Treasury rally as a snapback after record-short positioning, why Dicker warns the bond market peak is behind us and bonds may be a brutal long-term hold, and why a falling dollar index is actually re-dollarization, not the collapse everyone expects. You'll see why both managers treat gold as portfolio insurance that gets sold first in a crisis, why energy could become the next crowded trade if the Middle East stays hot, and how a closer Fed-Treasury 'shotgun wedding' could reshape dollar policy as great-power competition heats up. You'll walk away with a concrete way to stress-test your exposure to bonds, equities, gold bullion, and cash against a range of outcomes.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:05 - October Treasury Rally And Dollar Strength

2:33 - Is The Bond Peak A Bear Trap?

4:36 - Why Higher US Rates Are Not Catastrophic

6:35 - Defining Inflation As Rising Prices

7:13 - Rising Yields And Dollar Strength Explained

9:08 - Global Government Debt Financing Crisis

11:07 - Will Sovereign Bond Markets Force Central Bank Intervention?

13:18 - Why Global Chaos Favors The United States

15:03 - The 110 Trillion Dollar Global Debt Problem

17:01 - What Could Actually Break The Dollar System

17:46 - Dollar Index As De-Dollarization Gauge

24:23 - Gold Bitcoin And Oil Underperforming Amid Chaos

27:05 - Iran Nuclear Risk And Market Signals

33:57 - Gold As Portfolio Insurance And Core Holding

37:29 - Energy As The Next Market Euphoria Trade

39:13 - Expecting A Tech And AI Correction

42:25 - Prepare For A Crash Instead Of Waiting

47:29 - Canada US Economic Ties And Energy Exports

52:45 - The Fed Treasury Shotgun Wedding Thesis

58:06 - Will America First Survive The Next Administration?

1:02:23 - Year End Outlook Be Prepared For Everything

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Brent Johnson / Santiago Capital: https://santiagocapital.com

→ Follow Brent on X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

→ Brent Johnson on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MilkshakesPod

→ TransAtlantic TakeAway (Brent Johnson & John Butler): https://www.transatlantictakeaway.com

→ Keith Dicker / IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com

→ Follow IceCap on X: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal

→ The Loonie Hour (Keith Dicker): https://www.looniehour.ca

⚡Previous Episode:

Brandon Quittem & Walker America: https://youtu.be/Lci53xJgAFw

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