Taiwan: Will China Make Its Move? | China Considered | Hoover Institution

In a new episode of China Considered, Elizabeth Economy sits down with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, to assess why tension in the Taiwan Strait is markedly higher than it was a decade ago. Glaser lays out Xi Jinping’s strategy for making progress toward unification without firing a shot—military pressure, psychological warfare, efforts to divide Taiwan politically, and legal and diplomatic moves that erode its sovereignty—and explains why sweeping purges of the PLA and the steep costs of an invasion weigh against the use of force. The two discuss how the Chinese public views a war over Taiwan, the progress and gaps in Taiwan’s defense reforms and civilian resilience, and why Beijing’s interest in semiconductor chip foundry TSMC is not what drives its decisions. Glaser also reflects on why her research has drawn fire from both sides of the Strait, then assesses the second Trump administration’s approach to Taiwan and US allies and what depleted US munitions stockpiles mean for deterrence. They close with her recommendation of Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung’s China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping and her answer to the question posed by her book, US-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis?

Recorded on October 16, 2026.

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China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.