The 2026 Middle East Forecast

What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026?

In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come.

In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss:

• How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts
• The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events
• Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics
• The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen
• Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
• The strategic importance of the Gulf states
• Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation

Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8 

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Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews.

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