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Conversations Among The Ruins

Syria’s Collapse: What’s Next for Syria After Assad’s Shocking Downfall

60 min • 9 december 2024

The conversation delves into the unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, exploring the rapid changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The discussion highlights the factors leading to Assad's downfall, including military morale, potential corruption, and the role of external powers like Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The speakers contemplate the future of Syria, weighing the possibilities of chaos akin to Libya or a new regime under HTS, and analyze the implications for regional players and the broader international community. In this conversation, Peter and Charles Erickson discuss the current geopolitical landscape in Syria, focusing on the implications of Hezbollah's weakening, Israel's strategic gains, and the evolving relationships between various factions, including HTS and Al-Qaeda. They explore Turkey's ambitions in the region, the impact on the Palestinian cause, and the broader geopolitical implications of these developments. The conversation also reflects on the leadership failures that have contributed to the current state of affairs in Syria and the potential future outcomes for the region.


  • Assad's sudden departure shocked many, including key players in the region.
  • The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has drastically changed.
  • Morale and corruption within the Syrian military contributed to Assad's fall.
  • External influences, including Turkey and the US, may have played a role in the military's collapse.
  • The future of Syria is uncertain, with potential for chaos or a new regime.
  • HTS may attempt to establish control, but their extremist roots raise concerns.
  • Hezbollah and Iran are significant losers in this outcome.
  • Russia's involvement in Syria may not have long-term benefits for them.
  • The situation in Syria could lead to a resurgence of jihadist movements.
  • The desire for peace among the Syrian people remains a critical concern. Hezbollah is significantly weakened and isolated.
  • Israel is likely to expand its influence in Lebanon.
  • HTS has a complex relationship with Israel, balancing temporary alliances.
  • Turkey aims to expand its territory in northern Syria.
  • Iran's influence in the region is diminished but not eliminated.
  • The Palestinian cause faces increased challenges and diminished hope.
  • Geopolitical dynamics are shifting towards BRICS nations.
  • Leadership failures in Syria have led to a rapid collapse.
  • The future of Syria remains uncertain and bleak.
  • There is a possibility of a more stable regime emerging, akin to Saudi Arabia.
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