This Top Economist's P(Doom) Just Shot Up 10x! Noah Smith Returns To Explain His Update

Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.

He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated.

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith!

00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update

00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework

00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™

00:09:59 — Unpacking Noah's Update

00:16:56 — Why Incidents of Rogue AI Lower P(Doom)

00:20:04 — Noah's Mainline Doom Scenario: Much Worse Than COVID-19

00:23:29 — Society Responds After Growing Pains

00:29:25 — Agentic AI Contributed to Noah's Position

00:31:35 — Should Yudkowsky Get Bayesian Credit?

00:33:59 — Are We Communicating the Right Way with Policymakers?

00:40:16 — Finding Common Ground on AI Policy

00:47:07 — Wrap-Up: People Need to Be More Scared

Links

Doom Debate with Noah Smith — Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwmJ-OnK2I4

Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion

Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog

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