Who Was Liron Shapira BEFORE Doom Debates? — Interview on Theo Jaffee's Podcast from December 2023

In December 2023, I joined the Theo Jaffee Podcast to talk about a wide range of topics including non-AI x-risks, where I disagree with Eliezer Yudkwowsky, cryptocurrency and if P(Doom) is rigorous. This episode was recorded 6 months before I'd started Doom Debates. Let's look back with the power of hindsight and see if my answers still hold up.

Links

#10: Liron Shapira — AI doom, FOOM, rationalism, and crypto (YouTube) — https://youtu.be/YfEcAtHExFM

Watch Theo Jafee now on MTS — https://www.mts.now/

MTS Live — https://x.com/MTSlive

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Theo's Introduction

00:01:03 — Is Liron Worried About Non-AI Existential Risks

00:03:36 — Suffering Risks

00:05:22 — Is P(Doom) rigorous?

00:09:42 — Is Eliezer Overestimating P(Doom)?

00:12:18 — Where Does Liron Disagree with Eliezer?

00:15:43 — What Would Change Liron's Mind

00:17:14 — Elon Musk's AI Timelines

00:18:34 — Is xAI Making Things Worse?

00:20:24 — The Case for an AI Manhattan Project

00:22:32 — Are Superforecasters Wrong About AI Risk?

00:26:02 — The Race Against Time for Alignment

00:28:01 — Headroom Above Human Intelligence

00:33:31 — Vitalik's d/acc Framework

00:35:23 — Edging Toward Superintelligence

00:38:21 — From Chatbot to World-Ender

00:41:55 — GPT Paradigm vs. AlphaZero

00:43:18 — Critiquing AI Optimism

00:48:29 — Deceptive Alignment and Gradient Descent

00:53:31 — Does Nice Training Data Make Nice AI?

00:57:57 — How Do You Live with 50% P(Doom)?

01:00:08 — Why Have Kids If the World Might End?01:02:16 — Israel vs Hamas

01:06:15 — How LessWrong Changed Liron's Lif

e01:08:42 — Rationalism and Effective Altruism

01:14:49 — Why Blockchain Has No Use Case Beyond Cryptocurrency

01:22:13 — Charlie Munger and Richard Feynman

01:24:38 — Closing

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