Let’s see where the attendees of Manifest 2025 get off the Doom Train, and whether I can convince them to stay on and ride with me to the end of the line!
00:00 Introduction to Doom Debates
03:21 What’s Your P(Doom)?™
05:03 🚂 “AGI Isn't Coming Soon”
08:37 🚂 “AI Can't Surpass Human Intelligence”
12:20 🚂 “AI Won't Be a Physical Threat”
13:39 🚂 “Intelligence Yields Moral Goodness”
17:21 🚂 “Safe AI Development Process”
17:38 🚂 “AI Capabilities Will Rise at a Manageable Pace”
20:12 🚂 “AI Won't Try to Conquer the Universe”
25:00 🚂 “Superalignment Is A Tractable Problem”
28:58 🚂 “Once We Solve Superalignment, We’ll Enjoy Peace”
31:51 🚂 “Unaligned ASI Will Spare Us”
36:40 🚂 “AI Doomerism Is Bad Epistemology”
40:11 Bonus 🚂: “Fine, P(Doom) is high… but that’s ok!”
42:45 Recapping the Debate
See also my previous episode explaining the Doom Train: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/poking-holes-in-the-ai-doom-argument
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk!
PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info
Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
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