The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions

As AI increasingly accelerates its own research and development, could this create a runaway feedback loop of self-improvement? This theoretical paper mathematically analyzes the conditions required for such an "intelligence explosion," showing that truly explosive, asymptotic growth is harder to achieve than prior economics-based models suggested, while identifying an underappreciated middle category of faster-than-exponential (but bounded) growth. The paper highlights "generation time" --- how long one loop of the feedback cycle takes --- as the crucial hidden variable. This work matters for AI safety, forecasting, and policy discussions about transformative AI timelines. Authors: Toby Ord Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14426v1