Space, AI, and US Launch Dominance (with Avi Parrack and Tom Davidson)

Avi Parrack was a researcher at Forethought, where he worked on AI, space expansion, and governance. Tom Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought and the author of a series of reports on AI timelines, takeoff speeds, and AI-enabled coups.

They discuss:

• Why SpaceX could give the US around 99% of global launch capacity once Starship is flying
• How the space-based interceptors planned for Golden Dome would work
• Whether the US could use this lead to "pull up the ladder" and lock rivals out of space
• How rivals might fight back: jamming, hacking, ground-based lasers, and strikes on launch sites
• Whether space dominance could break nuclear deterrence, and why Avi expects the US to build the capability but hold back from using it
• Whether a lead in space could make up for China pulling ahead on Earth during an industrial explosion
• First-mover advantages in the race to industrialise the solar system: scarce orbital slots, more chances to iterate, space robotics, and mass that never has to be launched from Earth
• Why all of this could shape a US–China grand bargain, even if no space race ever happens

You can read a full transcript here.

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