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Forward Guidance

Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank

52 min23 februari 2024

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit

(02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank

(15:03) VanEck Ad

(15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

(18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB")

(21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem

(23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market

(25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt

(29:59) How This Might Play Out

(32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks

(35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities

(40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe

(43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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