The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.

We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:54 The Real Inflation Story

06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold

08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken

12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks

14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion

19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate

22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk

26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data

29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming?

36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed

45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy

48:14 Final Thoughts

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