687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)

 

• SOURCES:
  • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
  • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
  • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

 

• RESOURCE:
  • "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026).
  • "Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026).
  • "Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000).
  • "The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).

 

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
  • "How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
  • "The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

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