Bayesian Searchlights: Finding Objects with Probabilistic Mapping

In 1968 the missing nuclear submarine USS Scorpion becomes a turning point for math in search and rescue. This episode follows John P. Craven and a team of mathematicians who framed the ocean as a probabilistic map, using Bayesian search theory to update beliefs after every dive and zero in on a wreck deep in the Atlantic. We unpack the ideas of a probability space, the update loop, and how this approach reshaped modern recovery efforts—from Air France Flight 447 to today’s CASP software.

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