No Guarantees, No Peace for Ukraine | Episode 15

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PODCASTS

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Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id6810828298

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DESCRIPTION

Delegations from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are now meeting in Abu Dhabi in hopes of reaching an agreement on the all-important issue of security guarantees, which would represent a major step toward ending the Ukraine war. These negotiations are almost certain to fail, however, mainly because it is virtually impossible to devise a formula for security guarantees that satisfies both Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, the Europeans, who have been excluded from the negotiations at Russia’s insistence, are important players who will side with Ukraine against Russia.

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CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro
0:32 The Abu Dhabi Negotiations
1:08 Previous Talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva
2:02 Trump's Optimism vs. Ukraine's Pessimism
2:53 Why These Talks Will Fail
4:14 The Real Issue: Security Guarantees
5:10 No Ceasefire on the Table
6:13 What Ukraine Wants
7:20 What Russia Wants
8:37 Who's at the Table
9:00 Why Europe Is Left Out
12:20 Problem 1: The U.S. Is Not a Mediator
14:44 Problem 2: The Europeans
16:49 Indivisible Security
18:39 The Security Dilemma
21:38 Applying It to Ukraine and Russia
23:28 Russia Demands a Veto
24:25 You Cannot Square This Circle
26:10 The War Will Be Settled on the Battlefield
26:43 A Frozen Conflict
28:07 Conclusion

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MUSIC

"The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.