″“Community Notes” resolution for vague predictions.” by Raemon

Is there some kind of "get prediction markets, or predictions, onto twitter as a central object" project going? If so, how is it going?

I'm thinking through "how to raise median sanity" on a world scale. There are several incentive and institutional problems that make this very difficult. One angle is "try to make it a thing that the world tracks and cares about your predictions, and getting them right/wrong."

Two past angles here were:

• Fact checker sites of the 90s/00s, which became politicized
• Prediction markets, which I feel like aren't a good fit for most of what people would/should care about here. Operationalizing them is extremely annoying.

An idea for a twitter feature, which I think Musk should conceptually like given his stated values, and, I think he might have enough inertia to get behind, is:

• When you make a prediction shaped tweet, it automatically gets converted into a prediction-y object*. AI suggests a few plausible operationalizations, or specific edge cases that seem likely to come up that you might want to address.
• People can "like" predictions, predictions with a lot of attention get more automated followup.
• Instead of resolving predictions with explicit careful operationalization, people [...]

---

First published:
August 9th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zom89ud7c4GYnjWdt/community-notes-resolution-for-vague-predictions

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.