“So where’s this AI thing going?” by Seth Herd

The Overton window is shifting with statements like An Alien Mind from OpenAI's chief scientist and Jacob Coxon's viral statement on x-risk on resigning from Anthropic. I think we should try to push it further.

This is my public-facing explanation of AI progress and x-risk, where we're at and where we're probably heading. Most LessWrong readers are up on pretty much all of this and have their own opinions; I'm offering it here in case anyone is interested in my communication strategy, giving me feedback, or sending friends this brief intro to AI x-risk and timelines, and FAQ because you like my approach here.

My approach is bitter medicine with just a little sugar. I want to engage people more than I want to avoid scaring them, but I want to protect their feelings enough that they can handle thinking about this enough to believe it and engage. I follow the path of saying what I actually think, because softpedaling and being vague make you sound like a liar. But I do try to prepare the reader for the shock and explain why this all sounds so weird and hard to believe.

This is my take, but it's [...]

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Outline:

(01:43) What's going to happen with AI?

(02:38) The future will be different, just like it's always been

(05:18) NO FATE

(06:02) AI will become a new species

(08:04) Our offspring species could outcompete us, or care for us

(10:56) Frequently Asked Questions

(11:27) If this is such a big deal, why haven't I heard much about it?

(14:15) Won't we program future AI to do what we want?

(15:53) Isn't there something special about humans that AI can't duplicate?

(19:10) Won't it take a long time to make AI that's a new intelligent species?

(22:01) What the #$%#? Why are we building our replacements?

(23:57) How did we get into this fix?

(25:40) How can we still get a good future?

(27:00) How do I learn more?

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First published:
September 10th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HGhrDWJngx2LX9TkF/so-where-s-this-ai-thing-going

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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