Adam Dynes on Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes – #35

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.

Topics

• 1:22 – What is retrospective voting?
• 5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting
• 14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?
• 17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research
• 23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?
• 27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter
• 34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?
• 39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?
• 48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?
• 52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results
• 56:40 – Reactions to the results

Resources

• Transcript
• Adam Dynes (Personal Website)
• Adam Dynes (Faculty Profile)
• Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes