The Uzbekistan-shaped hole in an influential climate cost paper

How much could climate change cost the global economy?

That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer. These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms.

In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been attempted before. The paper quickly became highly influential. And then at the end of 2025, it was retracted.

Why? It’s all got something to do with Uzbekistan. Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, explains how he and his team identified the problem.

Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon