“Is 90% of code at Anthropic being written by AIs?” by Ryan Greenblatt

Subtitle: I'm skeptical that Dario's prediction of AIs writing 90% of code in 3-6 months has come true.

In March 2025, Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) said that he expects AI to be writing 90% of the code in 3 to 6 months and that AI might be writing essentially all of the code in 12 months.1

Did this prediction end up being true? We’ll charitably interpret the prediction as being about Anthropic itself. Recently, various articles have claimed that Dario said that AIs are writing 90% of the code at Anthropic (7 months after the prediction of 3-6 months was made). This is a reasonable summary of what Dario said when talking to Marc Benioff, but my current understanding is that it isn’t true that AIs are writing 90% of code at Anthropic.

The exact text being referenced by these articles is:

Dario: 6 months ago I [...]

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Outline:

(04:13) Takeaways

(08:19) Making predictions is good

(09:34) Appendix: relevant sources and adjudication of the prediction

The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
October 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/is-90-of-code-at-anthropic-being

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.