“My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far)” by Ryan Greenblatt

Subtitle: AGI before 2029 now seems substantially less likely.

As I discussed in a prior post, I felt like there were some reasonably compelling arguments for expecting very fast AI progress in 2025 (especially on easily verified programming tasks). Concretely, this might have looked like reaching 8 hour 50% reliability horizon lengths on METR's task suite1 by now due to greatly scaling up RL and getting large training runs to work well. In practice, I think we've seen AI progress in 2025 which is probably somewhat faster than the historical rate (at least in terms of progress on agentic software engineering tasks), but not much faster. And, despite large scale-ups in RL and now seeing multiple serious training runs much bigger than GPT-4 (including GPT-5), this progress didn't involve any very large jumps.

The doubling time for horizon length on METR's task suite has been around 135 days [...]

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First published:
August 20th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/my-agi-timeline-updates-from-gpt

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