Inflation Higher Near-Term, but Not From Tariffs

Lauren Saidel-Baker previews this week’s economic data and expects consumer inflation to pick up in the near-term. She emphasizes that this inflation does not come from tariffs, but from other economic factors – tariff impacts won’t hit for 9-18 months in her estimation. She sees “1, maybe 2” rate cuts this year but doesn’t expect them to hit 75 basis points. On the jobs reports, she notes that labor availability is also falling, and while there are things to worry about, she doesn’t think the bottom has fallen out.

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