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Why ADP Data Miss is Key for Friday's Jobs Data

6 min4 september 2025

"Momentum of labor market is flat on its back," says Ben Emons. Following August's ADP Employment Change data revealing a weaker number, he believes it indicates "at least a 25bps" rate cut but if Friday's August non-farm payrolls number is much weaker it could signal a bigger cut. Ben discusses how the latest labor market data will play a central role in the Fed's rate cut cycle, which could begin as soon as its September FOMC meeting in 2 weeks.


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