How to Get Lucky, Solved

Ask most successful people how they got where they are, and the answer is usually some version of "good timing." Everyone else swears they earned it. We're terrible at seeing our own luck clearly, and even worse at realizing how much of it we could create.

In this episode, Drew and I get into why: the psychology that makes us deny luck even exists, and what changes the moment you stop pretending everything is earned. 

We start with Warren Buffett - why a man worth tens of billions says the single most important thing that ever happened to him was where and when he was born. Then there's Napoleon, who picked his generals by skipping the résumé and asking one question: "Is he lucky?" And we brought in Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion who’s spent more than a decade studying decision-making, to explain why we keep confusing good decisions with lucky outcomes.

There's also a stretch on survivorship bias that'll make you rethink every success story you've ever heard.

Luck comes in three layers. And the research shows you have far more say over two of them than anyone ever told you.

If you want to take the hand you were dealt and play it better, this episode is for you.

Get your free episode guide: https://solvedpodcast.com/luck/

CHAPTERS:

Chapters

• 00:00:00 Introduction: Why Nobody Talks About Luck
• 00:00:12 Napoleon: The Boy Who Became Emperor
• 00:02:18 Spotting High-Leverage Opportunities
• 00:05:23 Acting Ferociously on Openings
• 00:09:01 Creating Loyalty and Invisible Advantages
• 00:11:11 The Statistical Impossibility of Napoleon's Success
• 00:12:54 Are You Lucky? Understanding Earth Luck
• 00:14:56 Richard Wiseman's Four Principles of Luck
• 00:16:17 Maximizing Opportunities and Surface Area
• 00:17:43 Trusting Your Gut and Informed Intuition
• 00:19:43 Optimism and Transforming Bad Luck
• 00:20:45 Personal Stories: How We Embody These Principles
• 00:34:40 Anxiety: The Enemy of Luck
• 00:40:10 Environment Over Personality
• 00:42:33 Moving to the Epicenter
• 00:44:52 The Poker Game That Changed Everything
• 00:46:06 Simple Ways to Increase Surface Area
• 00:48:57 Earth Luck as High-Leverage Decisions
• 00:52:07 Power Laws and Game Selection
• 00:58:06 Power Law Moments in History
• 01:00:12 Catching Waves: Positioning for the Next Revolution
• 01:01:59 The Heaven Luck of Our Generation
• 01:03:05 Recap and Preview: Moving to Human Luck

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