Supply, Demand, and Three Crises: What's Actually Moving Rates Right Now

Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

• NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trend
• Why the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both trades
• Why the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak season
• Hormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routes
• Panama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive sign
• Why Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with it

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Asia-North Europe

Asia-USWC/USEC