Nathan Goes to China #3: US-China Relations, the Art of the AI Deal & the Road to Pax Robotica

In this solo finale to his three-part series following two weeks in China, Nathan delivers a net assessment of Chinese AI capabilities and constraints ahead of dedicated US-China bilateral AI talks. He audits the impact of export controls, analyzes the perspective from Beijing, and outlines an actionable framework for a cooperative Pax Robotica. Nathan argues for joint compute initiatives, safety auditor standards, and conventions on autonomous weapons to keep tech trees entangled. Ultimately, he warns that pursuing an adversarial zero-sum race risks training frontier AI systems for conflict rather than the shared benefit of humanity.

For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:
https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/nathan-goes-to-china-3-us-china-relations-the-art-of-the-ai-deal-the-road-to-pax-robotica/

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00) About the Episode

(06:11) Episode intro and recap

(08:56) The Pax Machina goal

(12:32) The Anthropic worldview (Part 1)

(16:50) Sponsors: Deepgram Flux TTS | Claude

(18:55) The Anthropic worldview (Part 2)

(18:56) Net assessment of China

(32:26) China's eternal 1991

(44:03) History of Chinese AI

(54:34) China's domestic constraints

(01:07:09) Century of humiliation narrative

(01:27:01) Signs of Chinese cooperation

(01:42:38) American state capacity lessons

(02:05:39) Evaluating AI export controls

(02:27:25) Hyperstitioning a summit deal

(02:44:28) Preserving mutual legibility

(03:01:12) Autonomous weapons convention

(03:09:33) Positive sum AI competition

(03:12:31) Episode Outro

(03:15:05) Outro

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