Jake Sullivan on Navigating AI Uncertainty and Managing Competition with China

Today Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor from 2021-2025 joins The Cognitive Revolution to discuss AI as a critical national security issue.

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• Four-Category Framework: Sullivan organizes his thinking about AI into security, economics, society, and technology categories rather than focusing primarily on existential risks

• "Managed Competition" with China: He advocates for a model where the US and China "compete like hell" while maintaining sufficient guardrails to prevent conflict

• Skepticism of Grand Bargains: Competition is a "chronic condition" of the US-China relationship that cannot be solved with a strategic condominium

• AI in Modern Warfare: Current conflicts are providing "glimpses of the future" with lessons about scale, attritability, and the potential for autonomous weapons

• US Military Adoption Concerns: Sullivan worries that Pentagon bureaucracy prevents rapid AI adoption while China's PLA may be better positioned to integrate AI capabilities

• Private Sector Leadership: AI is "the first technology with such profound national security applications that the government really had very little to do with"

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