Risk On: The Macro Environment for Moving Metals Prices

In the first episode of season 6 of The Decisive podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Jason Kaplan unpacks why 2026 is shaping up as a "risk-on" commodities environment—with steady but subdued global growth, rising volatility, and a deepening flight to safety that's pushing risk premiums across key markets.

Jason, a senior economist in the Pricing and Purchasing team, connects macroeconomic signals to real-world pricing and trade flows, including how tariffs and regionalization are re-splitting markets after years of prices moving in lockstep. With a year of tariff data now visible, Jason details how Section 232-era aluminum tariffs and downstream copper-product tariffs are showing up in U.S. prices, collapsing imports, and widening regional differentials—with a caveat that the full cost burden for U.S. manufacturers may still be ahead.

On the metals side, the episode dives into copper's structurally tight supply picture, the unique stress points in aluminum's midstream, and the U.S. Midwest premium, plus what's driving turning points in nickel, tin, and zinc.

Finally, recorded just as geopolitical tensions escalated, Jason discusses why the published forecast does not yet fully incorporate the Iranian conflict—and what could change as updated macro assumptions are released, including particular sensitivity for Gulf-linked aluminum supply risks.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly: March 2026
• US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war
• Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Purchasing Environment
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Jason Kaplan
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun