#080 Nick Glinsman: Investors Beware China

Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country.

Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf

0:00 Show open

1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman

1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds

2:28 Harald Malmgren 

5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade 

6:25 Assessment of macro environment 

7:24 The Fed 

9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate 

15:00 Liquidity

18:00 Liquidity impact

23:30 China 

25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model 

29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China 

34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country 

37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult 

43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China 

46:40 China Is The Next Japan 

51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade” 

55:30 EV cars

58:00 Parting thoughts