#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months

Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture.

Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future.

0:00 Intro

1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy 

2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession 

4:33 The magnificent seven 

6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months 

7:10 Inflation 

9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing 

10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now 

12:30 Opportunities, energy sector 

15:30 Thoughts on AI  

17:50 Themes 

18:40 The end of globalization 

22:11 Labor market 

24:17 Hard or soft landing 

26:00 Regional banks 

27:48 Energy sector

32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities) 

37:24 TINA 

40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100

42:00 Career in financial markets