#111 David Hay: The Odds Of A Recession Are Going Up, Not Down, With Each Passing Day

David Hay, co-CIO at Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack, joins Julia La Roche on episode 111.

In this episode, Hay makes a case that the odds of a recession are going up, not down, with each passing day. 

The conversation dives into the bond market, exploring the shift to a secular bear market and the implications this holds for the broader financial ecosystem.

Elsewhere, Hay shares where he’s allocated and why he’s mildly bullish on energy. He also points out we have a supply problem, and we’re likely to experience an acute and lasting oil shortage.

Links: 

Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/

Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble

Evergreen Gavekal: https://evergreengavekal.com/about-us/

David Hay: https://evergreengavekal.com/team/david-hay/

The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Timestamps: 

0:00 Welcome David Hay to the show 

1:20 Macro view 

2:50 Odds of a recession are going up with each passing day 

4:17 Misleading data 

6:30 Higher for longer’s impact on bankruptcies 

7:40 GDI recession 

10:45 Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco 

12:29 Structural bond bear market 

15:27 Supply and demand in bond market 

17:44 Hedge funds buying USTs with leverage / the basis trade 

19:40 T-bills 

21:26 A ‘transitory’ bond rally 

25:30 The country is circling the drain 

28:00 Bondholders are going to be the sacrificial lambs 

29:20 Where do you want to be allocated 

31:40 We’re going to have an oil supply problem 

33:00 Parting thoughts