#383 Andrew Pancholi: Smart Money Is Quietly Exiting Stocks — What the Cycles Say Happens Next

Andrew Pancholi, founder and CEO of the Market Timing Report, joins the show for his debut to explain his framework of mathematical cycles—repeating patterns spanning 36, 60, 90, 100, 144, and 250 years that he uses to forecast turning points across markets, commodities, and geopolitics. He argues we're broadly tracking the 1920s bull market toward a potential 2029 peak, but warns he's turned more bearish near-term after Friday's data showed smart money leaving US equities, eyeing the third week of July as a major turning point. Pancholi shares striking targets—$183 oil if Middle East conflict escalates, $6,900 gold by March 2027, and a continued bearish view on Bitcoin—while tying current events to historical cycles, including the 36-year anniversary of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the US 250-year empire cycle. A commercial Boeing 777 pilot, he closes by connecting aviation's risk management and situational awareness to disciplined trading, emphasizing incremental gains over any "holy grail."

Thank you to our sponsors:

Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

x.com/AndrewPancholilinkedin.com/in/andrewpancholi

youtube.com/@markettimingreport

instagram.com/andrew.pancholi

facebook.com/markettimingcyclesanalysis

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro: who is Andrew Pancholi

01:21 – The big picture: mathematical cycles framework

02:00 – The 100-year cycle & path to 20290

2:30 – 90-year geopolitical cycle & polarization

05:29 – Equity markets: top or pullback?

08:21 – Smart money leaving US equities

10:43 – Kalshi prediction markets & 7,800 S&P target

13:15 – Third week of July turning point explained

14:12 – Charts: how the timing system works

20:17 – "You can't time the market" — the pushback

24:39 – The cycles explained: 30, 36, 45, 90, 144, 250 years

27:40 – War & revolution cycles, US civil strife

28:48 – The major war cycle nobody's talking about

31:41 – Oil outlook: $183 target

33:35 – Gold: bearish near-term, $6,900 target

35:12 – Bitcoin outlook

35:48 – The 250-year empire cycle & America's birthday

40:03 – Zero Hour book & cycles that failed

42:28 – From Boeing 777 pilot to cycles analyst

43:51 – COVID pandemic forecasted by the 100-year cycle

46:04 – Risk management lessons from flying

51:35 – Parting thoughts & where to find his work