China’s Strategy for Trump (w/Kurt Campbell)

President Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping at a moment of growing instability in the Middle East and rising anxiety across Asia.

In this episode, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell joins Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer to preview the summit and discuss:

• Why China increasingly believes the United States is in decline

• Xi Jinping’s read of Donald Trump

• Whether Trump might shift U.S. policy on Taiwan or semiconductor export controls

• How the Iran war is factoring into  China’s strategy 

• What comes next in the U.S.-China competition

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Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube.

Transcript here.

Email Jake and Jon at [email protected].

The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

REFERENCES & SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIALS:

“How China hopes to win from the war,” The Economist, April 1, 2026.

"The Stakes of Trump vs. Xi," Kurt Campbell, Foreign Affairs, May 2026.

“Xi Is Planning for China’s Final Victory Over the U.S.,” The New York Times, Julian Gerwirtz, May 13, 2026.

 “What a former CIA analyst reveals about a potential China fight,” Max Book Interview with John Culver, The Washington Post, May 11, 2026

“U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities,” Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman, and Jonathan Swan, The New York Times, May 12, 2026.

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