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The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer

Is Ukraine Now Winning the War Against Russia? (w/Michael Kofman)

1 tim 10 min4 juni 2026

More than four years into the Russia-Ukraine war, has the battlefield finally begun to shift?

Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer sit down with Michael Kofman, one of the leading analysts of the conflict, fresh off a trip to Ukraine's frontlines. Kofman argues that Ukraine is in its strongest position since 2023 and explains why Russia's grinding offensive may be running out of steam. Together, they discuss how Ukraine used drones and battlefield innovation to offset Russian advantages, why Moscow's military strategy is producing diminishing returns, and what it would take to translate recent developments on the battlefield into a lasting political settlement.

They discuss:

  • Why Kofman believes Ukraine has gained the advantage for the first time in years

  • How drones and decentralized defense production have transformed the battlefield

  • Whether Russia can be convinced that continuing the war is futile

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Transcript here.

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