Economy is Weakening But at Least the Cost of Living is Rising – Ep. 63

* Bad economic news coming in is more a deluge than a trickle
* Dollar continuing to drift lower since "patience" was removed
* New Zealand Dollar record high against the euro and the Australian dollar
* New Zealand enjoys a strong currency, economic growth, low inflation and low unemployment
* Swiss franc had a strong day today
* Chicago Fed National Activity Index revised down to -.11
* Three consecutive months of declining numbers
* Deteriorating numbers reflect pattern similar to pre-QE3 months
* Existing home sales number below estimates
* February new home sales up, however
* Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8, twice as low as most negative forecast. declining 4 times in 5 months
* CPI came in at .2%, exactly as expected; core up to 1.7
* Price of ground beef up 19.2%, at a record high
* The jobs numbers are a lagging indicator
* We are likely to see a jobs number downturn based on less optimistic assumptions
* Weaker jobs number will keep rates low
* The only thing that might drive rates higher is inflation, but goal of "medium term" is vague
* Weaker economy and higher inflation will cause dollar to drop
* When inflation is the only focus, it will be obvious that the Fed cannot raise rates, driving dollar down
* A currency crisis will finally force the Fed to raise rates


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