FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed Rate Hike Rocket Not Ready for September Liftoff – Ep. 103

* Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September
* Now expectations are being pushed back to December
* Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments
* We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle
* Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an upward trend
* There is no more upside in the "Fed is raising rates" trade
* The Fed may not raise rates at all, or say they might not raise rates again
* Is the Fed raising rates just so they can cut them? Raising rates will accelerate the recession
* Whether the Fed raises rates or does not raise them, this may be the end of the dollar rally and the end of the gold and silver decline
* The FOMC minutes do not indicate a plan for a rate hike in the future
* The Fed does not want to admit we're not progressing in the direction the Fed wants; we're moving the other way.
* Case in point: the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out on Monday
* Last month, in July the Index was 3.86% - a low number
* The consensus for August was a slight improvement to 4.75%
* We actually got -14.92%
* This is the lowest number since April of 2009 and the biggest miss since 2010
* The Fed is worried that there is not enough inflation
* There's not enough growth and the job market is not there yet
* If the Fed is further away from their goal than they have been in this ridiculous monetary experiment of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing
* Walmart earnings are down - blaming weak earnings on the strong dollar
* How much weaker will their earnings be with a weak dollar?
* Americans are spending more money on food - inflation that is not being measured
* The Stock Market is still selling off, because a rate hike is not priced in, as it is in the currency markets
* This would be the first Fed rate hike in a decelerating economy
* This is not a normal period, so don't expect the stock market to behave normally
* Now, people are now starting to figure out that the Fed's process is not so smooth
* The stock market will trend down until the Fed comes clean and admits that it cannot raise rates
* This is just a lag between QE3 AND QE4
* Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and when it comes to this Fed and this monetary policy, Murphy is going to look like an optimist


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