Greece is a Sideshow. U.S. is the Main Event – Ep.89

* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit"
* Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side
* As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems
* So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt
* The same is true for cuts to government spending
* The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for pension, but no government spending cuts are on the table
* Tax increases will provide more incentive for tax evasion or avoidance by leaving the country
* All talks are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic - extend and pretend
* The markets are higher - the euro down big
* The market is anticipating more cheap money, which would be threatened by a Grexit
* In an ideal world, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone and set themselves up as a bastion of free market capitalism, then they could come back strong
* Given the electorate, this move is unlikely
* Socialism only works in Greece as long as they have another country's money
* The sell-off in gold based on the Fed's dovish statements last week
* The Fed will only raise interest rates nominally in order to keep the market from balance sheet expansion stimulus into its calculations
* Good news from housing numbers - a surge in the Northeast
* Mortgage rates have been rising, although still low. Some buyers are worried about higher rates
* Higher rates, however would price buyers out of the market
* Monday Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.17, continuing a downtrend consistent with a recession
* May Durable Goods down 1.8% three times lower than expectations
* X transportation met recently reduced expectations
* Durable goods has missed for 5 out of the last 7 moths
* Chicago PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected decrease to 53.4 - now at the lowest level since October 2013
* Manufacturing and production data sis weak - housing numbers are getting a boost from interest rate expectations
* Home ownership rate continues to fall
* Rents are rising


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