Markets Ignore Fed’s Bullard One And Done Admission – Ep. 205

* The odds of a  December rate hike continue to ratchet up above 70%
* We had a parade of Fed officials, most recently again today coming out and talking about why a December rate hike is a good idea, probable, possible, appropriate
* You name the adjective, some Federal Reserve president, governor is discussing it
* The markets are ratcheting up their expecations
* The dollar index continues to move higher, we hit about a 9-month high today
* We got above 99; but we didn't close there, in fact the dollar index managed to close down a notch
* Interestingly enough, gold had a pretty strong day today, we had about I think we're at $12.73
* Even to the extent the FOREX traders are worried about a December rate hike, the gold traders don't seem to care about how a rate hike might impact the price of gold
* This says either the gold traders don't believe that a December rate hike is coming, or they've correctly concluded that even if the Fed does raise interest rates in December, it's no big deal
* It's too little too late to be a negative for the gold market
* The Fed is going to deliver far less than it promised when it comes to rate hikes
* In fact the most interesting comment from a Fed official came last week from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
* He said that the Federal Reserve only needs to nudge interest rates up by 25 basis points
* Right now, the official rate of Fed funds is between .25 and .50
* It used to be between 0 and 25
* I think where we actually are right now is 38 basis points
* So if we moved up 25, at least these are the numbers Bullard is throwing out, we'd move up to 63 basis points for the Fed Funds Rate
* Which is just barely above a half point
* He says that's all we need to do is nudge it up to 63 basis points, and that's it - we're done
* He said, "We need to do it in December, but then that's it, interest rates are going to stay really low for years."
* He's talking 2 or 3 years or maybe even more of ultra low interest rates, despite whatever is happening in employment, and inflation
* This is all we need
* Nudging up by a quarter basis point and we're done
* I was surprised, to be honest, that we didn't get more of a reaction to this admission by Bullard that the next hike, if it comes in December is the end of it
* If that's it and then we're on hold for years
* Sometime, during that period of time, we're going to find ourselves back in recession
* Even if we're not in recession now
* Even if this so-called recovery is in its twilight
* Remember this is the 3rd longest recovery of the post-war era and it is the weakest recovery - ever
* And, of course, it has the most stimulus
* So despite having the most stimulus, it's the weakest
* Clearly, it's going to run out of steam
* So if the Fed does in fact raise rates ever so slightly in December and then say:
* "That's it for now, we're just going to wait"
* What's going to happen is, we'll be back in recession
* If Hillary Clinton becomes the next president, and it's looking more and more likely that that nightmare will become a reality
* If she is, she will try to stimulate the economy
* Look what happened with George Bush
* When George Bush was initially elected the first time, he inherited the bursting of the dot com bubble


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