One Quarter-Point Rate Hike Does Not Make Me Wrong – Ep. 181

* I was in Las Vegas for the Freedom Fest and following that I went to Vancouver for a one-day gold conference
* One of the things I wanted to discuss was some discussion about me on the www.kitco.com website and I think it was prompted by my itnterview with kitco, which you can see on my YouTube Channel
* Whenever there is a discussion about me an argument develops between those who want to believe I never get anything right and those with believe I get a lot of things right
* I thought one part of the discussion was quite amusing
* Of course, I never claim to be infallible; when you make a lot of projections they don't all turn out to be right
* Nobody is 100% right on anything that they say
* The key is, are you right more often than you are wrong
* And when you're wrong, do you change your mind, when the facts change, which is something that I do
* But people will always go back and focus on a quote from years ago and say, "Look here's a quote from Peter Schiff saying interest rates would go up, and Look! now they're down"
* I did not expect the bond bubble to get this big
* Who thought we'd have half of the sovereign debt trading for negative yields?
* Very few people envisioned that, but it happened
* For the last several years I have said nothing about higher interest rates
* I do believe that when the bond bubble bursts rates will spike up
* But I don't know when that is going to happen
* If you've made enough forecasts, one can always find things that have not panned out
* But these people overlook the overwhelming number of forecasts I've gotten right
* One of the forecasts people used to make fun of me about was a forecast I made on a show called, "Southland Today"
* I put that up on the internet years ago, it's a 2002 interview and if you watch that clip, you'll recognize that a lot of the things I said in that interview were used to form the introduction to the old, "Wall Street Unspun" the precursor to the Peter Schiff Show
* The intro for that show included many quotes that were lifted from the "Southland Today" interview
* During that interview, I said I thought the Dow would go down to 4000
* Of course a lot happened between 2002 and now
* What did happen is that after I did that interview the market fell precipitously; the Dow did drop another 25-30%
* The NASDAQ maybe even more
* What happened between that interview and the market falling is that Alan Greenspan slashed interest rates down to 1%, and at the time of the interview I did not know he was going to do that
* I thought Alan Greenspan would be smarter than that
* If Alan Greenspan had not slashed interest rates, my forecast would have been correct
* Once Greenspan lowered interest rates, of course, I changed my forecast and became bullish on the market when it was still quite a bit lower
* 6yyj6e69


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