Pace Of Consumer Price Increases Set To Accelerate – Ep. 204

* The official probability of a December rate hike continues to diminish over the last several days
* The markets had the rate hike at about a 70% probability; now we're down to about 60%
* Personally, I think the odds are closer to zero, and over time, as we get closer and closer to that December meeting, the odds will steadily move down
* Just like the Atlanta Fed keeps moving down its estimates for Q3 GDP; most recently down to 1.9%
* I expect the Atlanta Fed to move lower again this week on more weak economic data
* As the potential for a rate hike diminishes, gold's appeal improving, gold prices now back above $1260 today
* We've had a couple of back to back strong days in the gold sector
* Maybe the catalyst for the recent correction in the price of gold was the renewed expectation of a November and now December rate hike
* As those expectations are realistically dialed back, you'll see more money moving into the metals
* The dollar, though, continues to trade firm
* It's not moving higher, but it's not really surrendering much of its gains
* Maybe some of this has to do with weakness particularly in the pound
* Why is the pound so weak?
* The Bank of England was very forthright, they wasted no time in warning voters not to vote for Brexit as it would be a disaster for the British economy
* Well, sure enough, the people voted for Brexit, and so now, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy
* The central bankers in Britain had convinced themselves that the economy would require stimulus, and therefore announced an increase in their QE program


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