Trumped Up Irrational Exuberance Continues – Ep. 212

 

* The Dow Jones is in record territory, closing above 19,000; they're already starting to talk Dow 20,000 now
* The markets are euphoric
* All the traders who were so convinced that President Trump would be a disaster for the stock market, now think it's a boom for the stock market
* It shows you how fickle investors are, but also how quickly the narrative can flip
* Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with the fundamentals
* I think traders are trying to push the markets in a particular direction, and they're just grasping for reasons to justify it
* Obviously, what they're talking about now is all this extra economic growth and inflation (supposedly inflation is a good thing)
* This is going to result from the the massive fiscal stimulus that we're going to get from the Trump administration
* Of course, everybody is ignoring the monetary drag that is already evident from the bloodbath in the bond market
* And this is going to continue, in fact if you look at the trend lines
* We've broken some trend lines now, which were down in yield and up in bond prices that have been in existence since 2007
* So we have done some serious technical damage to the bond market
* The 10-year yield, right now, is at 2.357, which is still low
* But it has moved up by 32% in the last 2 weeks
* That is a huge percentage increase in long-term interest rates
* First of all, this is already decimating the commercial real estate market, which is the bulk of Donald Trump's net worth
* He's going to be running his business from the White House while he is running the country; he says that's perfectly legal
* Clearly he doesn't want to see a continuation of the collapse in the commercial real estate market
* But believe me, these cap rates are moving up rapidly

 

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