Aug. 22, 2022: A shifting center of attention reshapes 2022

It’s been a long time (months? years?) since we’ve seen national Democrats in such a good mood about their electoral chances. Over the last few weeks — amid a spate of legislative movement, falling gas prices, stumbling Republican Senate candidates and the sense of a growing backlash to efforts to restrict abortion — the fight for control of Congress seems to have tightened. Gone are the days when pundits confidently predicted a red tsunami.

The latest NBC News poll — which still shows Republicans with a lead in the generic congressional ballot — had two data points that stuck out to us:

1. Democrats have almost eliminated the enthusiasm gap with Republicans. “According to the survey, 68% of Republicans express a high level of interest in the upcoming election … versus 66% for Democrats,” notes Mark Murray. “That 2-point GOP advantage is down from 17 points in March and 8 points in May.” 

2. Voters ranked “threats to democracy” as a more important issue than cost of living.

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