Sept. 30, 2021: Your guide to a critical day for Biden’s agenda

It’s died a million deaths before. Today might be the latest — albeit, perhaps not the last.

Sen. Joe Manchin pretty much ensured defeat of the bipartisan infrastructure deal known as BIF, if the House votes on it at all today.

While Manchin signaled he’d support a more modest reconciliation package to roll back the GOP’s 2017 tax cut, that does nothing for Democrats demanding a vote today — or for those vowing to tank it absent a deal. Asked Wednesday night if she intends to pull the vote, Speaker Nancy Pelosi reiterated that “the plan is to bring the bill to the floor.” Is she worried she doesn’t have the votes? “One hour at a time,” she said.

Here are the scenarios we could see play out today, from most to least likely.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.