Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market?

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence as a dominant buyer, and the growth of renewables have reshaped oil’s geopolitical and economic role.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan

Mentioned on the Episode: 

“Outlook for Energy Demand,” International Energy Agency (IEA) 

Ignacio Presno and Andrea Prestipino, “Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy,” Federal Reserve 

John Kehoe, “Iran War Oil Inflation is a Nightmare for RBA,” Financial Review

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.