The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit

Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment could signal whether this year will bring a continued jobless expansion or something more concerning.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs 

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence 

Alap Shah, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” Citrini Research 

Matt Shumer, “Something Big Is Happening in AI — and Most People Will Be Blindsided,” Forbes 

Martha Gimbel, “An AI Productivity Boom? Don’t Count Your (Productivity Data) Chickens,” Yale Budget Lab

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.