Record PPA Prices, GE Tries to Exit Vineyard

US wind PPA prices climb to $79.40/MWh as the IRA sunsets. Plus GE Vernova ordered to stay at Vineyard Wind, lessons from Spain's blackout, and data centers straining the US grid. Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard's StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary's "Engineering with Rosie" YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us! The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by Strike Tape protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit strike tape.com and now your hosts. Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I'm your host, Allen Hall here with Nikki Briggs, who is in North Carolina this week, and Yolanda Padron who is back from the exciting wedding and weekend in Mexico. Welcome back, Yolanda.  Yolanda Padron: Thank you. Excited to be here,  Allen Hall: uh, this week there's a, there's a lot going on and we're gonna touch upon some of it. Uh, Rosemary is over in China this week and Matthew is actually at Wind Europe in Madrid. And so this is gonna be an American focused episode mostly, but it's gonna have global implications. One of the key items is PPA prices in the United States and with the on sunsetting of the [00:01:00] IRA Bills, uh, tax credits, and the whole infrastructure there with the one big beautiful bill when it crushed the IRA bill. PPA Prices needed to come up well. That's happening, right? So developers, uh, can't live without some money to compensate for the roughly 26, 26 7 20 $7 in PPA prices that were compensated by the tax credits. But, uh, when purchase price agreements have hit the highest level since they begin tracking it at Wood Mac. The average wind PPA now stands at $79 and 40 cents per megawatt hour up 24% from just one year ago now, Yolanda, you and I were talking before we started recording today about how low some of those PPA prices were two years ago, three years ago. Some of them were almost single digits.  Yolanda Padron: Yeah, yeah. Some of them were pretty low. I [00:02:00] remember 16, $19 EPA prices and then a couple years ago we were looking at those and thinking, oh no, I can't believe we, we kept those prices and they're so low and everything's changed so much, and the prices grown so much, and that was two years ago and now it's, it's, it's, it's almost four times as much as, as what we had originally thought, which is. Not super great for those older projects,  Allen Hall: obviously, uh, when they, if they do repower, the extent they're gonna have to renegotiate the PPAs. Right. The, the landscape has changed quite a bit. So the, the question really is now are they gonna be able to renegotiate new PPAs when the existing PPA hopefully ends? You can't, you can't run turbines for free and will they repower. Or will they just try to extend the lifetime? I think it's a lot of operators trying to figure that out right now. And that's in light of installations. So Whim Mac also says that US wind installations are [00:03:00] on track to nearly double in 2026, uh, building towards 48 gigawatts of new capacity through 2030, which all makes sense, right? That the, the. Uh, everybody's trying to get all their assets in the ground so they, they qualify for the, the tax credits. So there's a big push. So 2026 and 2027 are gonna be pretty busy years. Uh, but the, the negotiations are still going on and we're talking to operators. Nikki and I have been talking to operators this past week or the last couple of weeks, honestly. There is all kinds of negotiations going on for turbines right now and who can get turbines? Can they get 'em in time? Can they get 'em planted fast enough? Nikki, it is causing a lot of operators to spend a great deal of time doing planning that they otherwise wouldn't have been working on two years ago. Nikki Briggs: Definitely. I mean, it seems kind of weird to me because it's like a weird spot. It's like, um, you know, we want more power and we need to do all these projects, [00:04:00] but then. The permitting process is just like a brick wall or something, you know? Um, like it just takes them so much more to get through, um, and get it moving. Allen Hall: Well, I, I think if you have an existing site, you're gonna repower it. I mean, that's probably the easiest thing to do if, if you can pull it off. The, the question is how big of a turbine are you gonna purchase? A lot of those turbines that are gonna get repowered are probably 1.5. To two megawatt machines. They're going to move up to five or six megawatt machines, generally speaking. So they're reducing the amount of turbines that are gonna be on site. But the, the amount of power that's delivered usually is about the same, maybe a little bit more. Which, which, which strives the, which drives the, the equation of, Hey, what's everybody gonna do in the next couple of years with the data centers. Having listened to the GE Renova financial report for Q1 that just came out as we're earlier today. GE is trying to sell gas turbines like there's no tomorrow. However, the weird thing about it was that they were [00:05:00] very nervous about locking in firm orders that a lot of the deposits they had for like 2029 or moving into 2030. So they had a, a discussion about GE Renova building gas turbines. They could do about 20 gigawatts a year, but they had like a 10 gigawatt hole. In 20 29, 20 30 of orders because the data centers are realizing, like to get a contractor to put a hole in the ground so you can put a data center in is taking more time than they thought. It's not Silicon Valley where you can just type some software. And Yolanda, you're kind of in the middle of this right now, being in Austin, Texas. Is the, the drive for data centers and the drive for power, what it was six months ago, is that landscape changed? Has everybody come back to reality? Like building physical projects takes time. Yolanda Padron: I think people are starting to get, get back to reality from the little bit that, that I've been, that. I privy to, uh, I do think that you mentioned the GE renova and [00:06:00] just kind of all the changes and everything. And I know in the past we've talked about, um, the fact that, you know, a lot of blade manufacturers have changed hands for wind and a lot of things are uncertain in general. Um, I think right now with the boom of people trying to repower and doing everything as quickly as possible and as safely as possible, it's really important that everybody should. Try to get as much documentation on everything as possible, not just to, to protect yourselves, right? I mean, if there's some sort of, I mean, you're, you're, you're checking that the foundation on your turbine is perfect still, um, doing all the civil engineering studies that you need to do and making sure that, that everything's fine, um, for, for the long term, right? If you're not, you're not planning on repowering again in five years. Um. But just to track everything. There's so much movement right now and so much uncertainty that at the very least, so you know, what you're dealing with, if and when you have an issue, [00:07:00] you know, five years down the line, like, oh, this is what happened and this is why, this is who I need to talk to, or this is how I'm going to solve this. Or, you know, it's not a new problem. Um, because it's just, there's just so many, so many factors changing. All at once that it's, it's a little bit, it's a little bit daunting for everyone in this space. I don't know if you guys feel the same way.  Nikki Briggs: I have a separate question, um, which is, you know about these PPA pricing, if it's going up, it continues to go up. Is the old adage about like green energy is the, is is the cheapest? Is that like out of the wind now? I mean, that's not even. You can't even apply that.  Allen Hall: No, I think renewable energy, solar and wind are the lowest cost, fastest way to get power onto the grid. The, the, the question is, uh, will state and federal governments prohibit it? Because if you're talking about the gas turbines, [00:08:00] which is not cheap, and you're talking maybe the earliest is 20 30, 20 32. Uh, as when you be able to, to get something scale there. What else did there that you're gonna build? Nuclear. Nuclear GE iss. Talking about nuclear small modular reactors again today. And they got a project going up in Canada, it sounded like that's not vast either. So if you're talking about speed and deployment, solar's quick, right? You can just put 'em up and you can get wind turbines up pretty fast too. But anything that's uh, gas turbine or god forbid, we start burning oil again to make electricity. Uh, I, I just don't see it. This has implications obviously over in Europe too, right? So Wind Europe is this week, and it's in Madrid, of course. And the Vesta, CEO, Henrik Anderson's, uh, told the audience over in Europe that, uh, hey, there's a lot of choices to be made [00:09:00] here the next couple of years, and it's more important now than ever, uh, to. Think about renewables with the problems in the ous, straight of ous, sending prices higher. Does Europe want to be connected to a petroleum future? I think Europe has been struggling with that since obviously the Ukraine war started. So the, the problems in Iran are just gonna double down on that. The EU Energy Commissioner, uh, Dan Jorgenson, uh, called it out. Earlier this week and said it's, this is not an energy crisis, it's a fossil fuel crisis. So if we don't have to rely on fossil fuel so much, then the energy crisis will hopefully come down in Europe. Uh, but one of the weird things about what's happening and where